Drought Under Global Warming and Climate Change: An Empirical Study of the Loess Plateau

Li, Yang; Xie, Zhengjun; Qin, Yaochen; Xia, Haoming; Zheng, Zhicheng; Zhang, Lijun; Pan, Ziwu; Liu, Zhenzhen

doi:10.3390/su11051281

Cited by 23 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The combined use of the two methods can enhance the immunity to noise, and it can be not affected by the sample distribution pattern and the interference of outliers. The combination improves the accuracy of the test results to a certain extent and is an available method to test the tendency of time series [45,[48][49][50].…”

Section: Theil-sen Median Trend Analysis and Mann-kendall Nonparametric Significance Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Vegetation Changes in the Upper White Nile River

Wang

Mupenzi

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

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Vegetation changes in the Upper White Nile River (UWNR) are of great significance to the maintenance of local livelihoods, the survival of wildlife, and the protection of species habitats. Based on the GIMMS NDVI3g and MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of vegetation changes in the UWNR from 1982 to 2020 were analyzed by a Theil-Sen median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The future trend of vegetation was analyzed by the Hurst exponential method. A partial correlation analysis was used to analyze the relationship of the vegetation and climate factors, and a residual trend analysis was used to quantify the influence of climate change and human activities on vegetation change. The results indicated that the average NDVI value (0.75) of the UWNR from 1982 to 2020 was relatively high. The average coefficient of variation for the NDVI was 0.059, and the vegetation change was relatively stable. The vegetation in the UWNR increased 0.013/10 year on average, but the vegetation degradation in some areas was serious and mainly classified as agricultural land. The results of a future trend analysis showed that the vegetation in the UWNR is mainly negatively sustainable, and 62.54% of the vegetation will degrade in the future. The NDVI of the UWNR was more affected by temperature than by precipitation, especially on agricultural land and forestland, which were more negatively affected by warming. Climate change and human activities have an impact on vegetation changes, but the spatial distributions of the effects differ. The relative impact of human activities on vegetation change accounted for 64.5%, which was higher than that of climate change (35.5%). Human activities, such as the large proportion of agriculture, rapid population growth and the rapid development of urbanization were the main driving forces. Establishing a cross-border drought joint early warning mechanism, strengthening basic agricultural research, and changing traditional agricultural farming patterns may be effective measures to address food security and climate change and improve vegetation in the UWNR.

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Section: Theil-sen Median Trend Analysis and Mann-kendall Nonparametric Significance Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Vegetation Changes in the Upper White Nile River

Wang

Mupenzi

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

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“…In this study, the MK method [29] was used to test the significant level, change direction, and trend inclination of NDVI, precipitation (TRMM), and LST in the Huaihe River basin on different time scales. This method is not affected by the pattern of sample distribution or disturbed by a few outliers; it is an effective way to test the trend of a time series [30][31][32]. The time series is set as {x i }, i=1,2,3, .…”

Section: Mann-kendall Non-parametric Significance Test and Theil-sen mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Driving Forces of Vegetation Changes in the Huaihe River Basin from 2003 to 2018

Liu

Wang

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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In this study, MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), TRMM3B43 precipitation, and MOD11A2 land-surface temperature (LST) data were used as data sources in an analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of vegetation changes and ecological environmental quality in the Huaihe River basin, China, from 2003 to 2018. The Mann–Kendall (MK) non-parametric test and the Theil–Sen slope test were combined for this analysis; then, when combined with the results of the MK mutation test and two introduced indexes, the kurtosis coefficient (KU) and skewness (SK) and correlations between NDVI, precipitation (TRMM), and land-surface temperature (LST) in different time scales were revealed. The results illustrate that the mean NDVI in the Huaihe River basin was 0.54. The annual NDVImax curve fluctuations for different land cover types were almost the same. The main reasons for the decrease in or disappearance of vegetation cover in the Huaihe River basin were the expansion of towns and impact of human activities. Furthermore, vegetation cover around water areas was obviously degraded and wetland protections need to be strengthened urgently. On the same time scale, change trends of NDVI, TRMM, and LST after abrupt changes became consistent within a short time period. Vegetation growth was favored when the KU and SK of TRMM had a close to normal distribution within one year. Monthly TRMM and LST can better reflect NDVI fluctuations compared with seasonal and annual scales. When the precipitation (TRMM) is less than 767 mm, the average annual NDVI of different land cover types is not ideal. Compared with other land cover types, dry land has stronger adaptability to changes in the LST when the LST is between 19 and 22.6 °C. These trends can serve as scientific reference for protecting and managing the ecological environment in the Huaihe River basin.

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“…Arid regions will get drier during global warming (Li et al, 2019). The Mongolian Plateau is located in an arid and semiarid climate zone, one of the areas most sensitive to the impact of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differentiating cumulative and lagged effects of drought on vegetation growth over the Mongolian Plateau

Guo

Yin

et al. 2022

Ecosphere

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Drought has a great impact on global terrestrial ecosystems. A large number of studies have shown that the impact of drought on vegetation growth has a lagged and cumulative effect, but it is unclear how much it contributes to different vegetation types. Therefore, based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) base version 2.5 and the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS3g) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets, this study aimed to analyze the response process of different vegetation types to the cumulative and lagged effects of drought in the Mongolian Plateau during 1982-2015 using Pearson correlation and the Mann-Kendall mutation method and deeply explore the magnitude of the contribution of drought cumulative and lagged effects on vegetation using the multiple regression method. Our results show that, from 1982 to 2015 as a whole, NDVI showed an insignificant increasing trend, and SPEI had a significant mutation in 1998 and showed an insignificant increasing trend before and after 1998. Before 1998, the cumulative months were shorter (1-3 months) in the central steppe and agricultural vegetation zones, and the lagged months were longer (10-12 months) in the southeastern steppe and northeastern forest zones; after 1998, the cumulative months of NDVI increased (7-12 months) and the lag months decreased (3-8 months) in most vegetation zones. A comparison of the contribution of drought accumulation and lag to NDVI revealed that the main driver of NDVI has shifted from lagged to cumulative effect.

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Drought Under Global Warming and Climate Change: An Empirical Study of the Loess Plateau

Cited by 23 publications

References 17 publications

Quantitative Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Vegetation Changes in the Upper White Nile River

Quantitative Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Vegetation Changes in the Upper White Nile River

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Driving Forces of Vegetation Changes in the Huaihe River Basin from 2003 to 2018

Differentiating cumulative and lagged effects of drought on vegetation growth over the Mongolian Plateau

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