Drivers of Support for the Populist Radical Left and Populist Radical Right in Belgium

Abstract

This study investigates how protest attitudes and ideological considerations affected the 2019 election results in Belgium, and particularly the vote for the radical right-wing populist party Vlaams Belang (VB) and for the radical left-wing populist party Partij van de Arbeid-Parti du Travail de Belgique (PVDA-PTB). Our results confirm that both protest attitudes and ideological considerations play a role to distinguish radical populist voters from mainstream party voters in general. However, when opposed to their second-best choice, we show that particularly protest attitudes matter. Moreover, in comparing radical right-and left-wing populist voters, the paper disentangles the respective weight of these drivers on the two ends of the political spectrum. Being able to portray itself as an alternative to mainstream can give these parties an edge among a certain category of voters, albeit this position is also difficult to hold in the long-run.

How Contextual Features Shape Incivility Over Time: An Analysis of the Evolution and Determinants of Political Incivility in Televised Election Debates (1985–2019)

“…Mediatization of politics started in the nineties with the emergence of commercial broadcaster VTM in 1989 and increased during the subsequent decades (Van Aelst, 2014); Belgians’ usage of social media has been rising over the past decade, also for getting politically informed (Tankovska, 2021); and the success of the main radical right-wing populist party Vlaams Belang started and kept increasing during the 1990s and 2000s. It declined between 2009 and 2014 but is largely increasing again since then (Goovaerts et al, 2020; Pauwels, 2011). Many other western democracies also experienced increases in mediatization (Esser & Strömbäck, 2014); importance of social media and dual-screening during election debates (Juárez-Gámiz et al, 2020; Trilling, 2015); and populist success (Rooduijn et al, 2019).…”

Food for Thought: A Longitudinal Investigation of Reflection-Promoting Speech in Televised Election Debates (1985–2019)

“…In particular, mediatization started in the 1990s after the emergence of the commercial broadcaster VTM in 1989 and increased during the subsequent decades (Van Aelst, 2014); Belgians’ usage of social media has been rising over the past decade, also for getting politically informed and engaged (Tankovska, 2021); and the success of the main radical right-wing populist party Vlaams Belang started and kept increasing during the 1990s and 2000s. Its success showed a decline between 2009 and 2014 but is largely increasing again since then (Goovaerts et al, 2020; Pauwels, 2011).…”

Affective polarization and coalition preferences in times of pandemic

“…However, the capacity of the elite of the two main linguistic groups (French-and Dutch-speakers) to reach agreements has been challenged in last years, as indicated by the length of government formation at the federal level (De Winter, 2019). This translated into polarizing trends in the ballot box (Goovaerts et al, 2020). The 2019 elections saw substantial shifts in party preferences and the rise of radical left (PVDA-PTB, 12 seats in the Lower Chamber, +10) and radical right parties (VB, who became the second party in Flanders with 18 Pilet, 2020).…”

“…As controls, we include standard individual-level sociodemographic variables (gender, age, education) as they were shown relevant for coalition preferences (Plescia and Eberl, 2021), where gender is a dummy equal to one for females, age is a continuous variable, while High_education is a dummy equal to one if respondents have the 'university degree'. We also include an index measuring the degree of populism of respondents, as it has been shown to affect coalition preferences (Plescia and Eberl, 2021), as well as protest attitudes and behaviors in Belgium (Goovaerts et al, 2020). To do it, we create an additive index the sums up over three items: "Politicians must follow the people's opinion"; "Political opposition is more present between citizens and the elite than between citizens themselves"; "I prefer being represented by an ordinary citizen rather than by a professional politician" (α = 0.83).…”