Downscaling global income scenarios assuming institutional convergence or divergence

Kemp-Benedict, Eric

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.007

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…First, this assumption has been verified by statistical analyses based on various empirical data [76][77][78] and has been widely used to assess global and regional inequality and poverty in international organization reports 21,[79][80][81] and research papers. 1,58,82 Second, using other distribution functions of income would lead to similar results because the poverty rate calculation is actually independent of the functional form of the distribution in our research.…”

Section: Rationality Of the Lognormal Distribution Assumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust strategies to end global poverty and reduce environmental pressures

Gao

Guo

et al. 2023

One Earth

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Section: Rationality Of the Lognormal Distribution Assumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust strategies to end global poverty and reduce environmental pressures

Gao

Guo

et al. 2023

One Earth

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“…The issue of convergence is important when discussing the generation of long-term climate scenarios and projections of economic growth (Kemp-Benedict, 2012;McKibbin et al, 2009). Recognising this, this study adopted a framework based on the conditional convergence hypothesis applied in a neoclassical growth framework, which is adapted from recent work by the Economics Department of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (Johansson et al, 2013):…”

Section: Conditional Convergence Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future growth pattern projections under shared socioeconomic pathways: a municipal city bottom-up aggregated study based on a localised scenario and population projections for China

Jiang

Chang

Zhong

et al. 2021

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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Precise multi-scenario projections of future economic outputs based on localised interpretations of global scenarios and major growth drivers are important for understanding long-term economic changes. However, few studies have focussed on localised interpretations, and many assume regional uniformity or use key parameters that are recursive or extrapolated by mathematical methods. This study provides a more intuitive and robust economic framework for projecting regional economic growth based on a neoclassical economic model and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios. A non-uniform version of SSP2 (the middle-of-the-road scenario) was developed, and more detailed population projections for China were adopted using municipal-level data for 340 districts and parameter settings based on China's recent development. The results show that China's GDP will vary substantially across SSPs by 2050. Per capita GDP ranges from 19,300 USD under SSP3 (fragmentation) to 41,100 USD under SSP5 (conventional development). Per capita GDP under SSP1 (sustainability) is slightly higher than under SSP2, but lower on average than under SSP5. However, SSP1 is a better choice overall because environmental quality and equity are higher. Per capita GDP growth will generally be higher in relatively low-income regions by 2050, and the upper-middle-income provinces will become China's new engine for economic growth.

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