Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

Bhardwaj, Amit; Misra, Vasubandhu; Mishra, Akhilesh; Wootten, Adrienne; Boyles, Ryan; Bowden, Jared H.; Terando, Adam

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2130-x

Cited by 32 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Climate models indicate a possible decline in hurricanes frequency (Msadek et al 2016), but an increase in hurricane intensity (Masson‐Delmotte et al 2018). Models also predict an increase in droughts due to human‐induced climate changes in many parts of the world (Khalyani et al 2016, Bhardwaj et al 2018). Future projections of precipitation in the Caribbean vary greatly; however, all models agree with an overall reduction in rainfall and an increase in droughts for Puerto Rico (Khalyani et al 2016, Bhardwaj et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Models also predict an increase in droughts due to human‐induced climate changes in many parts of the world (Khalyani et al 2016, Bhardwaj et al 2018). Future projections of precipitation in the Caribbean vary greatly; however, all models agree with an overall reduction in rainfall and an increase in droughts for Puerto Rico (Khalyani et al 2016, Bhardwaj et al 2018). Given the climate model predictions and the variability in species‐level responses, we urgently need to improve the way we monitor fauna around the world by establishing extensive, frequent, and long‐term monitoring.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of a drought and hurricane on tropical bird and frog distributions

Campos‐Cerqueira

Aide

2021

Ecosphere

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During the last few decades, much attention has focused on how global change is affecting the environment and species distributions. Land-use change is still the major cause of species declines worldwide, but changes in species distributions have been documented even in pristine and protected areas. Here, we document the distribution dynamics of 26 species of frogs and birds within a Caribbean protected area between 2015 and 2019. Specifically, we document species occupancy and detectability in 59 sites along three elevational transects within the El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico. Species were sampled using acoustic recorders, species identification algorithms, and post-classification validation. The study period included a severe drought (2015-2016) and a category 4 hurricane (2017). The distribution of most frog species did not change significantly during the study period. In contrast, the distributions of the bird species contracted between the 2015 and 2016 pre-hurricane surveys. This contraction coincides with a severe drought that peaked after the 2015 survey. The response of bird species after H. Maria was heterogeneous. Our results suggest that for many species, particularly birds, the 2015-2016 drought in Puerto Rico had a greater negative effect than H. Maria. The difference in the response of the bird and frog communities is likely related to their abundance at the site level, their ability to disperse, and temporal patterns of reproduction. If a site is occupied by a frog species, it could easily include 100s of individuals, and even if condition worsens, over a relatively short period the species will continue to occupy the site. In contrast, a site may only be occupied by one or a few individuals of birds. Birds have also higher dispersal abilities than frogs. Furthermore, Puerto Rican frogs reproduce year-round, whereas birds concentrate their reproduction during a few months in the wet season. Future climate scenarios predict a decrease in total precipitation and an increase in droughts for the region, which emphasizes the need to consider the diversity of changes that will be associated with future climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of a drought and hurricane on tropical bird and frog distributions

Campos‐Cerqueira

Aide

2021

Ecosphere

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“…Future research may consider modifying the GDI to include a kinematic component as well as evaluating the ability of coarse-resolution model output, such as the CFSv2, to forecast seasonal GDI values several months in advance. With eastern Caribbean hydroclimates projected to receive less precipitation in the coming decades (Karmalkar et al 2013;Bhardwaj et al 2018), the ability to accurately anticipate seasons of below-average precipitation will only become more pressing.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Seasonal Precipitation and Thermodynamic Environment in Puerto Rico

Miller

Mote

Ramseyer

2019

Weather and Forecasting

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With limited groundwater reserves and few reservoirs, Caribbean islands such as Puerto Rico are largely dependent on regular rainfall to meet societal and ecological water needs. Thus, the ability to anticipate seasonal rainfall shortages, such as the 2015 drought, is particularly important, yet few reliable tools exist for this purpose. Consequently, interpolated surface precipitation observations from the Daymet archive are summarized on daily, annual, and seasonal time scales and compared to the host thermodynamic environment as characterized by the Gálvez–Davison index (GDI), a convective potential parameter designed specifically for the tropics. Complementing the Daymet precipitation totals, ≥1.1 million WSR-88D volume scans between 2002 and 2016 were analyzed for echo tops ≥ 10 000 ft (~3 km) to establish a radar-inferred precipitation activity database for Puerto Rico. The 15-yr record reveals that the GDI outperforms several midlatitude-centric thermodynamic indices, explaining roughly 25% of daily 3-km echo top (ET) activity during each of Puerto Rico’s primary seasons. In contrast, neither mean-layer CAPE, the K index, nor total totals explain more than 11% during any season. When aggregated to the seasonal level, the GDI strongly relates to 3-km ET (R2 = 0.65) and Daymet precipitation totals (R2 = 0.82) during the early rainfall season (ERS; April–July), with correlations weaker outside of this period. The 4-month ERS explains 51% (41%) of the variability to Puerto Rico’s annual rainfall during exceptionally wet (dry) years. These findings are valuable for climate downscaling studies predicting Puerto Rico’s hydroclimate in future atmospheric states, and they could potentially be adapted for operational seasonal precipitation forecasting.

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“…The statistical downscaling consensus was drawn from a large ensemble of GCMs and scenarios, suggesting that the dynamical downscaled realization from Bhardwaj et al . (2018) could be sensitive to the GCM, the scenario, and regional climate model and its configuration. Another possibility is the statistically downscaled projections may not accurately represent the complex climate, especially with regards to changing precipitation extremes as both the stationarity assumption and station density are known issues with statistical downscaling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands

Bowden

Terando

Misra

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the regional spectral model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non‐Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2‐km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Two 20‐year time slices were downscaled for historical (1986–2005) and future (2041–2060) periods following RCP8.5. Projected changes to mean and extreme temperature and precipitation were quantified for Holdridge life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The evaluation reveals a persistent cold bias for all islands in the U.S. Caribbean, a dry bias across Puerto Rico, and a wet bias on the windward side of mountains within the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite these biases, model simulations show a robust drying pattern for all islands that is generally larger for Puerto Rico (25% annual rainfall reduction for some life zones) than the U.S. Virgin Islands (12% island average). The largest precipitation reductions are found during the more convectively active afternoon and evening hours. Within Puerto Rico, the model uncertainty increases for the wetter life zones, especially for precipitation. Across the life zones, both models project unprecedented maximum and minimum temperatures that may exceed 200 days annually above the historical baseline with only small changes to the frequency of extreme rainfall. By contrast, in the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is no consensus on the location of the largest drying relative to the windward and leeward side of the islands. However, the models project the largest increases in maximum temperature on the southern side of St. Croix and in higher elevations of St. Thomas and St. John.

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Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

Cited by 32 publications

References 40 publications

Impacts of a drought and hurricane on tropical bird and frog distributions

Impacts of a drought and hurricane on tropical bird and frog distributions

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Seasonal Precipitation and Thermodynamic Environment in Puerto Rico

High‐resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands

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