Doing Windows: Non-Traditional Military Responses to Complex Emergencies

Hayes, Bradd C.; Sands, Jeffrey I.

doi:10.21236/ada430559

Cited by 16 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…These operations are usually conducted by the military in support of the Department of State, the United Nations, or some other nonmilitary authority. Another notable document was also the result of a series of workshops around the same time, sponsored by the Naval War College, in which the goal was to define a set of factors and relationships that modeled a societal situation (Hayes and Sands 1997). The following set of questions captures the essence of the societal modeling problem (Clemence et al 2007).…”

Section: Peculiarities Of Societal Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Verification and Validation

Hartley

Starr²

2010

Estimating Impact

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"All models are wrong; but some are useful." This well-known adage by the statistician, George Box, contains several important insights (Box 1979) -first, that a model is an abstraction of reality, and second, that the parts of a model which are important for its intended purpose should be emphasized, while those which are nonessential can be deemphasized or even left out. Consider, for example, "model" airplanes. Display models, such as those designed to be hung from ceilings, are concerned with proportions vis a vis size, material composition, or flying capability. If they look right, they make for satisfied users. Models intended for flying, on the other hand, sacrifice proportions and composition in order to produce a device that "performs." Since neither model reproduces reality, each is inherently "wrong"; however, each may meet its intended purpose quite well. The situation is similar with software models. A skilled modeler should focus on those aspects of reality that are germane to the issue of interest. If he or she succeeds, and the abstraction effectively addresses the factors relevant to the model's purpose, then it is possible that the model will be "useful."The questions of adequate abstraction and of the model's usefulness are particularly challenging -and poorly explored at this time -for PMESII models (societal models). Like the challenge of visualization (Chap. 10), the challenge of validation handicaps the current generation of societal models. This is the topic of our chapter: having constructed a societal model, how do we know that the model is useful?Verification, validation, and accreditation (VV&A) are processes that address the correctness of models. Just as models can have many forms, they can refer to different parts of the real world (e.g., hurricanes, flight characteristics of an airliner, price sensitivity of a commodity to scarcity, or the impact of international interventions). Further, models can have different purposes (e.g

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Section: Peculiarities Of Societal Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Verification and Validation

Hartley

Starr²

2010

Estimating Impact

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“…A model developed there (see Figure 11, the foundations for this model were developed in [13], Figure 5-1, page 101) consisted of 99 variables organized into 12 submodels. The goal of this model was to bring together experts from a variety of areas relevant to stability of a region (in this case, the Black Sea region).…”

Section: Group Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid modeling and analysis with QGENIE

Drużdżel

2009

2009 International Multiconference on Computer Science and Information Technology

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Abstract-QGENIE is a specialized interface to GENIE, a decision modeling environment developed by the Decision Systems Laboratory, University of Pittsburgh. QGENIE allows for rapid construction of graphical models in which all variables are propositional, almost no numerical probabilities are displayed at the user interface, and degrees of truth of propositions are displayed by means of node colors. All numerical parameters, such as prior probability distributions over variables and strengths of influences between variables, are entered by means of graphical sliders. While the underlying computations are all numerical and based on Bayesian updating, QGENIE makes the impression of a qualitative, "order of magnitude" type system that aids rapid model building and an approximate analysis of systems.

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“…[NGS, October 1998] As mentioned previously, a root cause of population displacements (which generate immigration or refugees) is the challenge of maintaining sufficient resources and access to them, to address the various components which lead to societal satisfaction, comfort, and assurance. [Hayes & Sands, 1998] The chain is: With natural resources sustained and maintained, the population pressures are reduced, reducing strife, conflict, and birth rates. The reduction in level of strife reduces the number of calls and need for military response and assistance via CCOs, thus reducing the consumption of operations and maintenance funds and the accelerated aging of the systems.…”

Section: Figure 6 -Naval Earthmap Observermentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward Improved Coalition Interoperability - A Coalition Environmental Approach in the International Strategic Arena

Bryant

Breslin²

2002

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NOTE: This is a student paper -Mr. Bryant is a member of the 2000 Cohort of the Defense Leadership and Management Program (DLAMP) Report Documentation PageForm Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. AbstractIn the years since the end of the cold war, the Department of Defense, with the military services, has seen a significant increase in taskings for complex-contingency operations (CCOs). The framework for CCO response is found in Presidential Decision Directive -56 (PDD-56), Managing Complex Contingency Operations, and paralleled in the Federal Response Plan (FRP) of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Traditionally, the response to CCOs has been remedial, i.e., response to the symptoms. However, if root causes could be attacked ahead of time, CCOs might be prevented from occurring. Another facilitating framework for solutions is available.Recent efforts address many command and control aspects of the Revolution in Military Affairs in the building blocks of technology and doctrine. Another critical block is organization factors. The authors specifically address the extension of a collaborative framework, modeled on the Coastal America Partnership. This framework could be applied on an inter-agency and international basis to support the FEMA's Federal Response Plan implementation, DOD and inter-agency CCO responsiveness, innovative application of technical developments, and allied and coalition interoperability.The follow-up result could be reduced taskings for CCOs by pro-active collaborative mitigation of societal needs and roots causes, and ultimately improved readiness and coalition interoperability due to sustained resource availability.

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Doing Windows: Non-Traditional Military Responses to Complex Emergencies

Cited by 16 publications

References 22 publications

Verification and Validation

Verification and Validation

Rapid modeling and analysis with QGENIE

Toward Improved Coalition Interoperability - A Coalition Environmental Approach in the International Strategic Arena

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