Does violence against civilians depress voter turnout? Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina

The loser's long curse: electoral consequences of a class conflict

“…Contrary to several earlier studies on civil wars and their political impacts (Alacevich and Zejcirovic 2020;Blattman 2009;Iwanowsky and Madestam 2019), we do not find any evidence that municipalities that were more exposed to the civil war would have had lower (or higher) voter turnout rates. This echoes the result of Coupé and Obrizan (2016), that victimization in the Eastern Ukraine conflict has not increased political participation-which they conclude highlights the importance of country-and context-specific studies.…”

“…On the one hand, conflict could undermine trust, which could have detrimental effects on turnout as well. For instance, Alacevich and Zejcirovic (2020) provide evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina that is in agreement with this argument. On the other hand, conflict and repression could increase support for pluralism and thereby bolster civic participation-see, for example, Iwanowsky and Madestam (2019) for evidence from Cambodia.…”

“…Barceló 2021;Costalli and Ruggeri 2019;Tur-Prats and Valencia Caicedo 2020). We know that conflict can shape subsequent political engagement (Alacevich and Zejcirovic 2020;Bellows and Miguel 2009;Blattman 2009;Iwanowsky and Madestam 2019), but the long-term political consequences are among the most poorly understood repercussions of civil wars (Blattman and Miguel 2010;Davenport et al 2019). By providing such evidence, this paper also adds to the burgeoning literature on historical persistence in economic and political development.…”

“…What further complicates the relationship between civil war exposure and party support is that civil conflict affects civic participation in post-conflict societies, which is well documented in the civil war scholarship (Alacevich and Zejcirovic 2020;Blattman 2009;Iwanowsky and Madestam 2019). If the Finnish Civil War also affected voter turnout negatively, it is important to bear in mind that changes in the turnout base may have had additional, ambiguous partisan consequences.…”

Conflict and the Formation of Political Beliefs in Africa

“…Individuals who are exposed to crime, conflict, violence and genocide often have greater levels of political participation, are more trustworthy, vote more often, exhibit more pro-social behavior, are more empathetic towards refugees, and contribute more to public goods (Bateson, 2012;Becchetti et al, 2014;Miguel, 2006, 2009;Carmil and Breznitz, 1991;Garcıa-Ponce and Pasquale, 2014;Gilligan et al, 2014;Glennerster et al, 2013;Gneezy and Fessler, 2011;Hartman and Morse, 2015;Shewfelt, 2009). Conversely, trust, inter-ethnic cooperation, and membership in associations decline during the course of a conflict, although social capital recovers rapidly afterwards (Alacevich and Zejcirovic, 2018;Cassar et al, 2013;De Juan and Pierskalla, 2016;De Luca and Verpoorten, 2015;Grosjean, 2014;Rohner et al, 2013a). This literature remains small, and we contribute new evidence to it.…”