Does Population Aging Impact China’s Economic Growth?

Chen, Qiuxing; Chi, Qiaozhu; Chen, Yang; Lyulyov, Oleksii; Pimonenko, Tetyana

doi:10.3390/ijerph191912171

Cited by 23 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The wellestablished industry scale and substantial international influence of China's construction industry enable the derivation of general conclusions that may be applicable to other countries. Secondly, severe population aging in China has increased the importance of enhancing endowment insurance as a social welfare policy [27,28]. Endowment insurance is a crucial source of income for retirees.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Qualitative Investigation of Barriers and Facilitators Involved in the Implementation of Endowment Insurance in China’s Construction Industry

et al. 2023

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Given their occupation’s inherent income instability, the promotion of endowment insurance among construction workers is essential. This research reports the barriers and facilitators involved in promoting endowment insurance to construction workers, by contextualizing it in China. It adopts a qualitative research approach combining semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis. It is discovered that the barriers include (1) construction workers’ low willingness to participate in insurance, caused by the low level of awareness and understanding of the benefits of endowment insurance, low income, unstable employment situation, and lack of trust in the insurance system, (2) companies’ irresponsibility, caused by cost pressure, lack of policy support, uncertain legal responsibilities, and (3) governments’ incomplete management, caused by insufficient funding, complex administrative procedures, weak regulation, and regional differences. A series of facilitating measures are also proposed, including (1) increasing awareness and understanding of the benefits of endowment insurance, (2) adjusting the design of the endowment insurance scheme, and (3) strengthening legislation and enforcement. This study presents an analysis of the promotion practices of endowment insurance in China’s construction industry, which can provide policymakers with valuable references for optimizing the endowment insurance system. The findings can have significant implications for China and other developing countries that may face similar challenges in promoting social security programs in aging societies.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Qualitative Investigation of Barriers and Facilitators Involved in the Implementation of Endowment Insurance in China’s Construction Industry

et al. 2023

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“…The formation and change of the cropping structure within crops is actually the result of farmers' choices based on the comparative returns of different crop cultivation under the constraints of natural conditions, labor elements, and agricultural capital elements, and the main factors constraining farmers' planting decisions are the quantity and quality of labor inputs and agricultural capital under the constraints of natural factors such as climatic conditions and soil and water resources. Changes in rural demographics can alter the constraints on the quantity and quality of agricultural labor and even agricultural capital [53][54][55]. In addition, the agricultural capital input constraints of farmers may also tighten due to labor shortages that increase labor prices and thus labor input costs, as well as increased household expenditures due to the increased burden on the elderly population [56].…”

Section: Theoretical Analysis and Research Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Cropping Structure: Evidence from China’s Provinces

Li,

Lu,

Luo

et al. 2024

Agriculture

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Agricultural cropping structure is related to the quality of the agricultural supply system and is a key element of the structural reform of the agricultural supply side. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2000 to 2021, this paper empirically examines the impact and mechanism of rural population aging on the planting structure of food and cash crops by using a two-way fixed-effects model, which fills the gap in the research on the impact mechanism of the rural population aging on agricultural planting structure. The conclusions of the study show that: as the aging of the rural population deepens, the proportion of food crops planted will further increase, while the proportion of cash crops planted will decrease; agricultural mechanization will promote the further increase of the proportion of food crops planted while the proportion of cash crops planted will decrease in the deepening of the aging of rural population; the aging of the rural population has a more significant impact on the structure of agricultural planting in the eastern region and does not have a significant impact on the central and western provinces. The aging of the rural population has a significant impact on the agricultural planting structure in the eastern region, but not in the central and western provinces. This paper argues that we should fully respect the willingness of agricultural management subjects to choose planting varieties, increase the research, development, and promotion of agricultural machinery, continuously improve the level of farmers’ human capital, and further enhance the degree of organization, scale, and specialization of agricultural production.

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“…In China, due to the long-standing pension and healthcare policies, social welfare fiscal expenditures such as pensions and healthcare have increased year by year as China's population ages, as studied by Fu BY and Li HX) [24]. Chen Q et al [25] further argued that the most direct fiscal expenditure items associated with population aging are fiscal expenditures on pensions and healthcare, and in the empirical analysis, the mediating effect of fiscal spending on old age and healthcare is significant. This situation has also been verified in Europe, where Cho D and Lee K) [26] found, using data from several European countries, that public spending on pensions and healthcare showed a significant positive relationship with the rate of population aging, and that population aging significantly reduced fiscal sustainability through these public expenditures.…”

Section: The Path Of the Role Of Population Aging On Fiscal Sustainab...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Study of the Impact of Population Aging on Fiscal Sustainability in China

Liu

Zhao

2023

Sustainability

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China has entered a deeply aging society, and the aging population poses a significant public risk to fiscal sustainability. In this regard, researchers have conducted a large number of studies, but the fiscal sustainability indicators used in the existing literature are not scientific enough, the sample data are too macro, and the heterogeneity analysis is not comprehensive enough. This paper innovatively constructs fiscal sustainability indicators based on data from 4 municipalities directly under the central government, 8 provincial capitals, and 88 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010–2019, and analyzes the impact of population aging on fiscal sustainability in eastern, central, western, and multi-level cities in China, using methods such as two-way fixed-effects models. The study finds that (1) fiscal sustainability is significantly hampered by population aging; that is, the more aging there is, the less fiscal sustainability there is. (2) The inhibitory effect of population aging on fiscal sustainability is greater in developed regions compared to backward regions. Compared to prefecture-level cities, provincial cities (including municipalities and provincial capitals) are much more negatively impacted by population aging on fiscal sustainability. (3) The paths through which population aging inhibits fiscal sustainability are healthcare expenditures and social security employment expenditures. The policy recommendations put forward in this paper are to raise the fertility rate, protect the fiscal expenditures of developed regions and provincial capitals to deal with population aging, and increase the effectiveness of the use of funds for medical and health expenditures and social security employment expenditures. The conclusions and policy recommendations drawn in this paper have a positive effect on China’s response to the fiscal sustainability problems caused by an aging population.

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Does Population Aging Impact China’s Economic Growth?

Cited by 23 publications

References 27 publications

A Qualitative Investigation of Barriers and Facilitators Involved in the Implementation of Endowment Insurance in China’s Construction Industry

A Qualitative Investigation of Barriers and Facilitators Involved in the Implementation of Endowment Insurance in China’s Construction Industry

The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Cropping Structure: Evidence from China’s Provinces

A Study of the Impact of Population Aging on Fiscal Sustainability in China

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