Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

Abstract

Abstract. Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (58C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

“…A combined approach also allows the modeler to identify areas of higher confidence within the projection (e.g., where the models overlap) and areas where the predictor variables failed to capture the factors limiting the species’ distribution (e.g., where models differ [49,50]). For example, species-specific temperature tolerance data were combined with distribution data to model macroalgae survival [51] and the geographic responses of UK butterflies to climate change [52]. Similarly, variation in climatic factors generalized to a single widespread tree species were used to parameterize a hybrid model for six tree species in the Pacific Northwest USA [53].…”

Thermal sensitivity predicts the establishment success of nonnative species in a mesocosm warming experiment

“…As such, understanding the natural history of the organism whose performance is under consideration is critical for making accurate predictions in response to changes in temperature. However, when correctly applied, physiological data such as thermal performance curves in mechanistic species distribution models may be valuable for enhancing spatial predictions of species' range shifts (Buckley et al 2011).…”

Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling

“…However, extrapolation (i.e., projections beyond the range of environmental values used to calibrate the models) must be treated carefully (e.g., Thuiller et al 2004b, Fitzpatrick and Hargrove 2009, Arau´jo et al 2011a). Alternatively, physiological tolerances of species to climate (i.e., interpreted as characterizing their fundamental niches) can be estimated either from firstprinciples approaches or via experiments (e.g., Kearney and Porter 2004, Buckley et al 2011). However, this approach is not practical for most species, which will frequently be too poorly known to permit first-principles approaches or will prove intractable for experimentation.…”