Does Brazil need new nuclear power plants?

Carvalho, Joaquim Francisco de; Sauer, Ildo Luís

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.12.020

Cited by 21 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 3 publications

(3 reference statements)

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“…On the other side, experts highlight the problems of cost overruns, spent nuclear fuel management (which is still an issue in other countries, Singer 2013), and inflexible operation of nuclear plants (Borba et al, 2012). For example, Carvalho and Sauer (2009) analyzed the cost overruns of the Angra III nuclear power plant, with construction lasting for more than two decades, 15 and concluded that, given the country's energy resources, "the potential decision to finish construction work on Angra III simply to justify the existing sunk could prove to be a mistake". They also contested the opinion of some Brazilian policy-makers and experts that, given the Brazilian uranium reserves 16 and the country's technical and industrial capability to enrich it (Cabrera-Palmer and Rothwell, 2008), nuclear plants would be also justifiable by the need to maintain the country's technological development and expertise.…”

Section: Nuclear Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

et al. 2016

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a b s t r a c t Available online xxxx JEL classification: H23 C88 Q40 Q54 C61 C63 C68 O57 Keywords: Climate policy Low-carbon energy scenarios Mitigation alternatives BrazilThis paper assesses the effects of market-based mechanisms and carbon emission restrictions on the Brazilian energy system by comparing the results of six different energy-economic or integrated assessment models under different scenarios for carbon taxes and abatement targets up to 2050. Results show an increase over time in emissions in the baseline scenarios due, largely, to higher penetration of natural gas and coal. Climate policy scenarios, however, indicate that such a pathway can be avoided. While taxes up to 32 US$/tCO 2 e do not significantly reduce emissions, higher taxes (from 50 US$/tCO 2 e in 2020 to 162US$/tCO 2 e in 2050) induce average emission reductions around 60% when compared to the baseline. Emission constraint scenarios yield even lower reductions in most models. Emission reductions are mostly due to lower energy consumption, increased penetration of renewable energy (especially biomass and wind) and of carbon capture and storage technologies for fossil and/or biomass fuels. This paper also provides a discussion of specific issues related to mitigation alternatives in Brazil. The range of mitigation options resulting from the model runs generally falls within the limits found for specific energy sources in the country, although infrastructure investments and technology improvements are needed for the projected mitigation scenarios to achieve actual feasibility.

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Section: Nuclear Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

et al. 2016

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“…This nuclear power expansion might Table 3 Carbon tax progression in the baseline and low-carbon policy scenarios (US$ 2010 /tCO 2 e). compose the optimum solution of the model, only if there is no construction delays and cost overruns, which have been usual in Brazil's nuclear experience [3]. As mentioned earlier, the implementation of new nuclear power reactors in Brazil is a controversial issue, specially after the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan.…”

Section: Optimal Power Supply Portfoliosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, continuing delays in the implementation of new reactors due to complex environmental licences, social acceptance and construction schedule delay risks result in unexpected costs resulting in costs overrun due to underestimation of the actual cost. Thus, under a baseline trend, the expansion capacity is restricted to current reactors operating in 2050 or projects already under construction, 3 i.e., Angra #2 (1.35 GW) and Angra#3 (1.40 GW), which totally will supply 20.2 TWh yearly in 2050.…”

Section: Optimal Power Supply Portfoliosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overlooked impacts of electricity expansion optimisation modelling: The life cycle side of the story

Portugal-Pereira

Köberle

Soria

et al. 2016

Energy

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a b s t r a c tThis work evaluates implications of incorporating LCA-GHG (life cycle assessment of GHG emissions) into the optimisation of the power generation mix of Brazil through 2050, under baseline and low-carbon scenarios. Furthermore, this work assesses the impacts of enacting a tax on LCA-GHG emissions as a strategy to mitigate climate change. To this end, a model that integrates regional life cycle data with optimised energy scenarios was developed using the MESSAGE-Brazil integrated model. Following a baseline trend, the power sector in Brazil would increasingly rely on conventional coal technologies. GHG emissions from the power sector in 2050 are expected to increase 15-fold. When enacting a tax on directcarbon emissions, advanced coal and onshore wind technologies become competitive. GHG emissions peak at 2025 and decrease afterwards, reaching an emission level 40% lower in 2050 than that of 2010. However, if impacts were evaluated through the entire life cycle of power supply systems, LCA-GHG emissions would be 50% higher in 2050 than in 2010. This is due to loads associated with the construction of plant infrastructures and extraction and processing of fossil fuel resources. Thus, taxes might not be as effective in tackling GHG emissions as shown by past studies, if they are only applied to direct emissions.

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“…Moreover, Brazil's built hydropower capacity of 84 GW is estimated to constitute only around 30 per cent of total available potential. (EPE 2013a;IEA 2013a;Carvalho and Sauer 2009. ) Figure 3, below, illustrates the growth in electricity generation and the changes in shares of sources over the past two decades.…”

Section: Challenges In the Hydropower-dominated Electricity Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…) Rising costs are another key issue affecting the sector. A study from 2009 estimating the costs of different electricity alternatives in Brazil found that hydropower is by far the most economical and environmentally friendly option, at around a third of the cost of sugarcane bagasse and natural gas, and 35-40 per cent of the cost of nuclear and coal (Carvalho and Sauer 2009). Some recent studies have estimated even more substantive price differences, with large-scale hydropower at R$85/MWh (US$38) at one extreme and oil-powered thermal power at R$600/MWh (US$270) at the other (Oliveira 2014).…”

Section: Box 2: Dynamics Of Investments and Costs In Brazil's Electrimentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Energy in Brazil

Luomi

2014

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Does Brazil need new nuclear power plants?

Cited by 21 publications

References 3 publications

Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

Overlooked impacts of electricity expansion optimisation modelling: The life cycle side of the story

Sustainable Energy in Brazil

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