Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines

Abstract

Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active insurgencies. The authors test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly available measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied forces and (2) violence that kill civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost theory, the data emphatically reject a positive correlation between unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces (p < .05 percent). There is no significant relationship between unemployment and the rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. The authors identify several potential explanations, introducing the notion of insurgent precision to adjudicate between the possibilities that predation on one hand, and security

Employment and rebellion in conflicted and fragile states

“…This model predicts that, regardless of an individual's motivation for joining rebel groups, potential increases through gainful employment, which would have to be foregone (or at least reduced) in order to participate in rebellion, raise the personal and financial cost of participating in rebellion. That being so, increases in employment opportunities should reduce the number of people who are willing to join an insurgency and therefore reduce insurgent activities [1]. However, one study actually finds a negative relationship between unemployment and violent acts in the three rebellions they study [1].…”

“…That being so, increases in employment opportunities should reduce the number of people who are willing to join an insurgency and therefore reduce insurgent activities [1]. However, one study actually finds a negative relationship between unemployment and violent acts in the three rebellions they study [1]. Another study finds a similar negative relationship between unemployment and terrorist attacks in Palestine [7].…”

“…While it is not possible to discern from the studies referred to above what the direction of causality is that runs between violent acts and unemployment in the conflicts they study, the authors of one of the studies list several possible casual connections [1]. They suggest that increased employment may lead to increased incomes for more people and therefore to more predatory activity by criminals and rebels.…”

“…Estimates suggest that by 2030 all of the remaining countries currently classified as LICs will be conflicted and fragile [3]. Many aid programs in these states are motivated by the theory that increasing formal employment opportunities will lure the perpetrators of civil violence away from rebel groups [1]. However, the evidence for this is scant.…”

“…One study established a negative correlation between unemployment and violence in the countries it studied, but the causal mechanisms were unclear [1]; questions remain as to whether employment makes counterinsurgency more difficult, whether counterinsurgency strategies reduce both violence and employment, and whether programs that increase jobs also increase violence.…”