Do US Troop Withdrawals Cause Instability? Evidence from Two Exogenous Shocks on the Korean Peninsula

Avey, Paul C.; Markowitz, Jonathan N.; Reardon, Robert J.

doi:10.1093/jogss/ogx020

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 24 publications

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“…4. Avey et al (2018) estimated the probability of instability in the Korean peninsula if USFK were completely withdrawn. Their analysis reveals that it is unlikely that USFK withdrawal would result in greater conflict.…”

Section: Fundingmentioning

confidence: 99%

US Military Deployment and Its Effects on South Korea’s Politics and Economy

Heo

Yun

2020

Journal of Asian and African Studies

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Due to the lack of studies on the effects of US troops on an individual host state, we studied the effects of US troops on South Korea’s politics and economy. Based on security enhancement benefits, we hypothesized that USFK would have positive effects on South Korea’s investment, trade, economic growth, and political development. Employing Heo and Ye’s empirical models, we conducted statistical analyses and found that the effects of USFK on South Korea’s trade, democracy level, and economic growth are statistically insignificant and the effect of USFK on investment is negative and statistically significant. These findings need to be cross-validated with a different measure of estimating USFK’s effects because our measure, size of USFK, may not capture its effects completely although there is no other measure.

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Section: Fundingmentioning

confidence: 99%

US Military Deployment and Its Effects on South Korea’s Politics and Economy

Heo

Yun

2020

Journal of Asian and African Studies

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Introduction

Jakobsen

2022

The Geopolitics of U.S. Overseas Troops and Withdrawal

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Do Foreign Military Deployments Provide Assurance? Unpacking the Micro-Mechanisms of Burden Sharing in Alliances

Sorg,

Wucherpfennig

2024

International Studies Quarterly

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How do US foreign military deployments impact the defense policies of host states? Dominant scholarship holds that these deployments play a pivotal role in assuring allies that their security is guaranteed, which in turn leads host countries to neglect their national defense contributions. In this research note, we examine the micro-foundations of this conventional wisdom, investigating how nuclear and conventional troop deployments impact attitudes toward defense policies in (potential) host states. We highlight that the presumed linkage between assurance and free-riding critically implies that foreign military deployments must positively affect perceptions of security among host nations. We test this core logic, alongside some alternative pathways, at the micro level through two survey experiments that randomize hypothetical withdrawals (Germany) and deployments (Czech Republic). Although we find some evidence that foreign military deployments can decrease citizens’ subjective need for defense, the survey experiments also reveal that citizens hardly feel protected by these deployments. Thus, our results cast doubt on the core logic underlying the theory of free-riding in alliances.

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Do US Troop Withdrawals Cause Instability? Evidence from Two Exogenous Shocks on the Korean Peninsula

Cited by 3 publications

References 24 publications

US Military Deployment and Its Effects on South Korea’s Politics and Economy

US Military Deployment and Its Effects on South Korea’s Politics and Economy

Introduction

Do Foreign Military Deployments Provide Assurance? Unpacking the Micro-Mechanisms of Burden Sharing in Alliances

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