Do terrorist attacks feed populist Eurosceptics? Evidence from two comparative quasi‐experiments

Abstract

The version in the Kent Academic Repository may differ from the final published version. Users are advised to check http://kar.kent.ac.uk for the status of the paper. Users should always cite the published version of record.

Attitudinal and Emotional Consequences of Islamist Terrorism. Evidence from the Berlin Attack

“…Existing research thus largely sees terrorist attacks as shocks that affect political attitudes and emotions. However, recent research suggests that the broader Western audience has become increasingly used to attacks (Brouard, Vasilopoulos, & Foucault, 2018; Castanho Silva, 2018; Economou & Kollias, 2018; Larsen, Cutts, & Goodwin, 2020; Markoulis & Katsikides, 2018). After a haunting wave of Islamist‐inspired terrorist attacks in Europe since early 2015, commentators have argued that Europeans have become “numb” to terrorism and that terror attacks have been “normalized” (Doble, McGregor, & de Gallier, 2016; Fischer & Reinbold, 2016).…”

“…For recent terrorist attacks in Europe (most prominently the Charlie Hebdo and Bataclan attacks in France in 2015), findings about attitudinal and emotional change are mixed. Several studies suggest that in the Western world, the impact of recent terrorist attacks on public opinion is short‐lived, focused on specific attitudes and sometimes not detectable (Brouard et al, 2018; Castanho Silva, 2018; Cohu, Maisonneuve, & Testé, 2016; Coupe, 2017; Economou & Kollias, 2018; Larsen et al, 2020; Mancosu, Cappiali, & Ferrin, 2018; Markoulis & Katsikides, 2018). These results about political attitudes cannot be fully explained by extant theorizing on the effects of terrorism, including the key theories of rallying around the flag and mortality salience.…”

The Christmas Market Attack in Berlin and Attitudes Toward Refugees: A Natural Experiment with Data from the European Social Survey

“…We cannot rule out the possibility that the attack may have led to a deterioration in attitudes towards refugees, but it is likely that a general shift in the public's attitudes has taken place that is not solely due to the attack. Larsen et al (2019) do not identify this effect because the bandwidth they used for their analysis is probably too narrow. On the other hand, we find some evidence that an immediate deterioration in attitudes towards refugees is only evident in people with rightwing attitudes.…”

“…Based on prior research findings, we also expect stronger spillover effects among people with right-wing political attitudes. Larsen et al (2019) find no effects in their more general analysis of the impact of the terrorist attack in Berlin on public attitudes in several European countries (Larsen, Cutts, & Goodwin, Matthew, J., 2019). In contrast to Larsen et al (2019), we suggest that the identification of the effect depends on methodological decisions such as the adjustment of the time bandwidth before and after the attack.…”

Чинники Зростання Популярності Євроскептицизму В ЄС.

“…Але цікавим виявилося дослідження Е. Ларсена, Д. Катсі, які, визначили, що позиція громадян до ЄС не змінюється після терористичних актів, громадяни не звинувачують ЄС у терористичних атаках. Однак, як зауважують самі автори, зв'язок між біженцями та терористичними атаками формують популістичні та євроскептичні партії, серед яких «Альтернатива для Німеччини», «Національний Фронт», «Рух 5 зірок» та низка інших [11].…”