Do rainfall conditions push or pull rural migrants: evidence from Malawi

Abstract

This article uses nationally representative data from Malawi's 2004/05 Integrated Household Survey (IHS2) to examine whether rainfall conditions influence a rural worker's decision to make a long‐term move to an urban or another rural area. Results of a Full Information Maximum Likelihood regression model reveal that (1) rainfall shocks have a negative association with rural out‐migration, (2) migrants choose to move to communities where rainfall variability and drought probability are lower, and (3) rainfall shocks have larger negative effects on the consumption of recent migrants than on the consumption of long‐time residents.

Environmental Dimensions of Migration

“…In many ways, the “maximalist” position resembled a linear “push-pull” model of environmental degradation, which would posit that humans will migrate from environmentally-degraded places towards less environmentally degraded places (Lewin et al 2012, van der Geest 2011). In contrast, the “minimalists,” and those who emphasized multi-level contextual drivers, argued for greater attention to historical, political, economic, and social contexts (Black 2001; Doevenspeck 2011; Lonergan 1998).…”

Migration and Environment

“…In some countries, adjustment is done through seasonal migration, as in Mali (Findley 1994). 3 In a cross-sectional study on Malawi, Lewin et al (2012) reject the hypothesis of rainfall shortage acting as a push factor for migration of the household head. The results instead indicate a lower probability of migration, consistent with the hypothesis that severe weather shocks reduce a household's income and stock of capital so much that the household does not have the funds necessary to migrate.…”

Using a migration systems approach to understand the link between climate change and urbanisation in Malawi

“…However, there is some evidence that households use ruralrural migration to deal with environmental stress (Potts, 2006b, Lewin et al, 2012. There is also evidence that intra-rural moves are influenced by environmental conditions in the potential destination.…”

“…There is also evidence that intra-rural moves are influenced by environmental conditions in the potential destination. For example, Lewin et al (2012) observe that Malawian migrants are less likely to move to areas that have had high rainfall variability during the last ten rainy seasons, or where drought has occurred in the last five years. Historically, Christiansen (1984) suggests rural-rural migrations have been influenced by low population density in destinations as farmers search for land.…”

“…Currently, around 25% of all migrations by household heads are to urban areas (Lewin et al, 2012). It is noted that not all urbanisation can be attributed to migration.…”