Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?

Abstract

In this study, the asymmetric Granger causality relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty index is examined by controlling inflation, consumer confidence index, and industrial production for the period 2000M1 and 2020M1 in Italy. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is one of the few studies to investigate the relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty in an asymmetric framework. The empirical results show that using the Granger causality test in a linear framework causes bias results due to misspecification. Therefore, the study relies on asymmetric Granger causality test results which reveal that the positive shock of world pandemic uncertainty Granger causes a negative shock of tourist arrivals. It is suggested that international tourist arrivals are sensitive to external shocks such as pandemics and in such instances the government of the concerned country can insulate the tourism-service and hospitality industry against the shocks by developing strategies to promote full information between all stakeholders.

A review of early COVID-19 research in tourism: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research's Curated Collection on coronavirus and tourism

“…Yet, many fail to provide rigorous causality inferences, yielding less reliable results regarding the causality between variables. For example, Granger causality (Uzuner & Ghosh, 2021) can only offer findings related to Granger-type causality instead of authentic causality. Also, a clearer understanding of the structural form of economic equations can help specify the reduced form model and identify potential instrumental variables to alleviate endogeneity.…”

Impact of the COVID-19 on foreign direct investment inflows in emerging economies: evidence from panel quantile regression

“…Having access to education and health services has become more difficult with the Ebola, besides, it has significantly hindered the capacity of the countries to accomplish their poverty reduction goals [ 60 ]. The impacts of COVID-19, which has been affecting the whole world for 2 years, on the general economic indicators such as unemployment, agricultural production, growth, trade, and tourism have been investigated by several researchers [ 15 , 35 , 39 , 56 , 61 ] However, since the role of the COVID-19 outbreak on FDI is the main object of this study a summary of the studies specifically on the FDI is given.…”

Social Representations about Cultural Tourism in the Time of COVID-19: A Case Study of Langhe, Monferrato and Roero (Italy)

“…However, the situation in which we are still immersed (as of writing this article in February 2021) also has the burden of making us reflect deeply and for a long time on many aspects that affect the most recent past, the present, and above all, the future of tourism not only at the regional and national level but worldwide. If in other aspects of social life, the consequences of the pandemic are still developing, in tourist mobility, they have had immediate and disruptive visibility, forcing us to think in a completely changed context in terms of economic system, social distancing and ecological concerns [48][49][50][51][52].…”

“…and national level but worldwide. If in other aspects of social life, the c pandemic are still developing, in tourist mobility, they have had imm tive visibility, forcing us to think in a completely changed context in system, social distancing and ecological concerns [48][49][50][51][52].…”