Do higher rents discourage fertility? Evidence from U.S. cities, 1940–2000

Abstract

This paper documents the existence of a negative cross-sectional correlation between the price of living space and fertility using U.S. Census data over the period 1940-2000. This correlation is not spurious, nor does it reflect the tendency of larger families to locate within lessexpensive areas of a given metropolitan area. We examine the extent to which the results reflect the sorting of married couples across metropolitan areas on desired fertility. The relationship between the unit price of living space and fertility in fact tends to be more negative for households that have moved recently. However, the probability of migration between metropolitan areas is smaller for larger families, even those originating in more expensive cities.Moreover, Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests reveal only limited evidence of endogeneity. The weaker effects of the price of living space for less mobile couples seems to be at least in part a result of their choosing to live in less-expensive portions within a given metropolitan area. 1 "Increased splendor, with higher prices for the necessaries of life, keep men from marrying in the cities

Family dynamics and housing

“…Likewise, findings for the United States suggest that women living in expensive housing markets delay the birth of their first child (Clark 2012). Unlike Clark (2012), Simon and Tamura (2009) even find lower completed fertility in areas with higher housing costs, and this effect does not seem to be caused by selective mobility. These findings suggest that difficult access to housing may lead to postponement of parenthood and possibly prevent some couples from having a child.…”

Small and large size for gestational age and neighborhood deprivation measured within increasing proximity to homes

“…Half of these studies also adjusted for parity (Agyemang, et al, 2009; Zeka, et al, 2008; Masi, et al, 2007; Schempf, et al, 2011; Janevic, et al, 2010; Cubbin, et al, 2008; Auger, et al, 2013), which was defined as nulliparous versus ≥1 previous births. Neighborhood deprivation may influence income and education attainment, as well as fertility and family planning decisions (Tumen, 2012; Simon and Tamura, 2009); thus, individual SES and parity may mediate effects of neighborhood deprivation on birth size. However, influences of individual SES and household size on residential selection decisions that balance housing cost and size are likely stronger (Sampson and Sharkey, 2008; Lund, 2006; Walker and Li, 2007), at least in the short term.…”

Are Children “Normal”?

“… 6 Simon and Tamura (2009) show that there is indeed a negative correlation between the price of living space and fertility. …”