Are Children “Normal”?

Abstract

We examine Becker’s (1960) contention that children are “normal.” For the cross section of non-Hispanic white married couples in the U.S., we show that when we restrict comparisons to similarly-educated women living in similarly-expensive locations, completed fertility is positively correlated with the husband’s income. The empirical evidence is consistent with children being “normal.” In an effort to show causal effects, we analyze the localized impact on fertility of the mid-1970s increase in world energy prices – an exogenous shock that substantially increased men’s incomes in the Appalachian coal-mining region. Empirical evidence for that population indicates that fertility increases in men’s income.

Income and Population Growth

“…Thus, very roughly, a doubling of national income leads to one additional child born per woman. These results are in line with children being a ‘normal good’ (Lee, ; Black et al ., ).…”

The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty

“…The vast majority of the studies find evidence supporting a procyclical relationship of births to economic fluctuations in advanced economies (Comolli and Bernardi 2015;Lee 2003;Livingston and Cohn 2010;Philipov 2010, 2011;Morgan, Cumberworth, and Wimer 2011;Ananat, Gassman-Pines, and Gibson-Davis 2013;Black et al 2013;Cherlin et al 2013;Goldstein et al 2013;Hofmann and Homeyer 2013;Currie and Schwandt 2014;Schneider 2015).…”

Do Highly Educated Women Choose Smaller Families?

“…Black et al . () used the exogenous increase in the price of coal during the energy crisis in the mid‐1970s to document that men's income in the Appalachian coal‐mining region increased and that this led to an increase in fertility.…”