Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis

Backhaus, Andreas; Martínez‐Zarzoso, Inmaculada; Muris, Chris

doi:10.1186/s40176-014-0026-3

Cited by 76 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…These studies are also the result of a few recent efforts made in building comprehensive datasets, such as the bilateral migration dataset of [77]. Using these data, a new wave of macro-studies has started to investigate the impact of climate change on international migration [53,54,[78][79][80]. Broadly speaking, the main findings appear to confirm the previous micro-evidence, but they also raise new issues.…”

Section: Climate Change and International Migrationsupporting

confidence: 70%

“…Bilateral migration flows from 142 countries into 19 OECD countries are studied in [78], where a positive and significant correlation is found between weather variations and human migration. The same macroeconomic approach is followed by [79].…”

Section: Climate Change and International Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several papers, among which [53,78,79], try to estimate the climate-migration link using a gravity-like model. As it is well-known from the international trade literature, the gravity equation represents one of the most successful models in economics.…”

Section: Climate Change and International Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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This paper proposes a selective review of the classical economics-based literature on climate change and migration, focusing on the extent to which agriculture might be considered a key mediating channel linking climate change to migration. Overall, climate change is expected to have large and negative effects on the global economy. These effects are even more evident whenever the economic sector considered is the agricultural one, particularly in developing countries. Hence, migration can be viewed as a specific form of adaptation implemented by individuals and households, enabling them to cope, among other things, with weather-induced risk. We show that the importance of agriculture emerges from both plenty of micro-level country studies and relatively few macro-level analyses using cross-sectional data over longer time periods. Thus, policy actions targeted to sustainable agriculture and rural development can both help tackle the challenges posed by climate change and create opportunities in the face of growing migration issues. However, we also stress that much of the current evidence is based on statistical associations that have nothing to do with causal inferences. This calls for the use of a more structural approach and more sophisticated research designs, enabling the researchers to better discriminate among different mechanisms concurrently at work. In addition, further research should be addressed to the role played by food security, a complex dimension largely missing in the current debates on climate change and migration.

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Section: Climate Change and International Migrationsupporting

confidence: 70%

Section: Climate Change and International Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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“…Higher temperatures would increase the flow of migrants to Australia. This positive effect is in line with other findings in the literature such as the results by Backhaus et al (), Cattaneo and Peri () or Aburn and Wesselbaum (), all of which find a positive albeit much smaller effect of temperature on migration in panels with more destination countries. However, while this total effect is significant, once we include other control variables (models 3, 4 and 5), the effect becomes insignificant.…”

Section: An Applicationsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Beine and Parsons () find no significant effect of climate variables on migration. In contrast, Backhaus et al () find that temperature and precipitation are positively correlated with migration in a sample of 142 origin and 19 destination countries. Cai et al () investigate the role of the agricultural pathway in the climate–migration relationship.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 87%

The Influence of Climate on Migration

Wesselbaum¹

2019

Australian Economic Review

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This paper provides an overview of research into the phenomenon of whether climatic factors, such as temperature and weatherrelated disasters, affect the decision to migrate. As an example, we examine migration flows from 198 countries to Australia for the time span from 1980 to 2015. Our results show that temperature does not have a robust, significant effect on migration flows, while weather-related disasters do significantly affect flows to Australia.

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Relationship among weather variation, agricultural production, and migration: A systematic methodological review

Sarker,

Alam,

Uddin

2024

Health Science Reports

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Background and AimsTwo main problems the globe currently facing are migration and weather variation. Weather change has a significant impact on the agricultural industry, which affects the majority of poor people. There is a dearth of adequate methodological documentation when examining the relationship between weather variation, agricultural output, and migration. We aimed to identify methodological reporting difficulties by reviewing the quantitative literature on weather‐related migration through agricultural channels.MethodsA systematic evaluation was conducted using papers published between January 2010 and June 2022, indexed in the SCOPUS, PUBMED, and Google Scholar databases. Using inclusion/exclusion criteria, we selected 22 original research articles out of 18,929 distinct articles for review, in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. We extracted data from each study to understand how various concepts, research designs, and investigative techniques influence our understanding of migration patterns related to weather in the agricultural sector.ResultsThe majority (64%) of the study's data consisted of time series data. In 50% of the studies, secondary data were used. Additionally, 55% of these studies did not state the sample size. In 40% of the studies, model assumptions were fully adhered to, whereas in 36% of the studies, they were not followed at all. The majority of the articles used the Ordinary Least Squares technique, while about 41% applied the Two‐Stage Least Squares technique. Various tests were conducted across these studies, such as robustness checks (59.1%), endogeneity tests (31.8%), omitted variable bias tests (22.7%), sensitivity analyses (22.7%), and weak instrument tests (13.6%), to name a few. In the research we selected, the methodology section had various shortcomings and lacked organization. Furthermore, the justifications for deviations from model assumptions were unclear, potentially affecting the study outcomes.ConclusionThis study has important indications for researchers in studying climatic (weather) migration through agricultural channels besides for policymakers by giving a thorough review of the methods and techniques.

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Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis

Cited by 76 publications

References 12 publications

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

The Influence of Climate on Migration

Relationship among weather variation, agricultural production, and migration: A systematic methodological review

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