The Influence of Climate on Migration

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of research into the phenomenon of whether climatic factors, such as temperature and weatherrelated disasters, affect the decision to migrate. As an example, we examine migration flows from 198 countries to Australia for the time span from 1980 to 2015. Our results show that temperature does not have a robust, significant effect on migration flows, while weather-related disasters do significantly affect flows to Australia.

Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis

“…Yet flooding (Call et al, 2017; Chen et al, 2017; Chen & Mueller, 2019; Ocello et al, 2015), droughts (Cottier & Salehyan, 2021; Ocello et al, 2015; Quiñones et al, 2021) and temperature (Beine & Parsons, 2017; Mueller et al, 2020; Nawrotzki & Bakhtsiyarava, 2017; Nguyen, 2021) and precipitation fluctuations (Beine & Parsons, 2015; Call et al, 2017; Call & Gray, 2020; Thiede et al, 2016) have also each been found to be associated with decreased migration. Other studies have found no, insignificant, or inconsistent migration effects from flooding (Bohra‐Mishra et al, 2014; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Mueller et al, 2014), storms (Loebach, 2016; Wesselbaum, 2019), droughts (Owain & Maslin, 2018; Selby, 2019), and precipitation fluctuations (Bohra‐Mishra et al, 2017; De Longueville et al, 2019; Grace et al, 2018; Gray & Wise, 2016; Mueller et al, 2020). The evidence here supports the IPCC's “high confidence” observation that “climate‐related migration outcomes are diverse … and may be manifest as decreases or increases in migration flows” (IPCC, 2022, p. 1079).…”

“…Across these different types, findings are mixed and in some cases contradictory, with evidence indicating that shocks may be associated with increased migration in some contexts (or for some social groups) but decreased migration in (or for) others. Thus, flooding (Beine & Parsons, 2015; Kakinuma et al, 2020; Robalino et al, 2015; Wesselbaum, 2019), storms (Berlemann & Tran, 2021; Pajaron & Vasquez, 2020; Spencer & Urquhart, 2018), droughts (Baez et al, 2017; Defrance et al, 2022; Fishman & Li, 2022; Murray‐Tortarolo & Salgado, 2021), positive and/or negative temperature fluctuations and extremes (Baronchelli & Ricciuti, 2022; Bohra‐Mishra et al, 2017; Cai et al, 2016; Call et al, 2017; Call & Gray, 2020; Falco et al, 2019; Mueller et al, 2014; Thiede et al, 2016; Wesselbaum, 2019), and precipitation fluctuations (Coniglio & Pesce, 2015; Cottier & Salehyan, 2021; Leyk et al, 2017; Nawrotzki & Bakhtsiyarava, 2017; Nguyen, 2021) have each been associated in multiple studies with increased migration and displacement. Climate‐related shocks may have a delayed impact on migration decisions, with studies showing that the effects of storms (Pajaron & Vasquez, 2020; Spencer & Urquhart, 2018) and rainfall fluctuations (Hunter et al, 2013; Thiede et al, 2016) on migration is lagged (e.g., increasing one or two years later).…”

“…In addition, shock impacts are significantly shaped by socio‐economic factors. Most notably, there is strong evidence that shocks are most clearly associated with migration in countries, regions, and communities with higher reliance on agricultural production and incomes (Beine & Parsons, 2015; Cai et al, 2016; Coniglio & Pesce, 2015; Hoffmann et al, 2020; Nawrotzki & Bakhtsiyarava, 2017; Wesselbaum, 2019); and in rural as against urban areas (Murray‐Tortarolo & Salgado, 2021; Nawrotzki, Hunter, et al, 2015). In contrast, evidence on the impact of income is contradictory: some studies find a stronger shock‐migration relationship in low‐income countries and regions (Choksi et al, 2021; Defrance et al, 2022; Falco et al, 2019; Kakinuma et al, 2020), while others find effects to be stronger in middle‐income areas, where economic constraints do not affect migration capacities to the same degree (Beine & Parsons, 2017; Delazeri et al, 2022; Hoffmann et al, 2020).…”

Climate change, slow onset events and human mobility: reviewing the evidence

“…Studies on international migration revealed differing findings, underlining the importance of context and methodology. For example, Wesselbaum [30 ] examines migration flows from 198 countries to Australia showing that temperature does not have a robust, significant effect on migration flows, while weather-related disasters do…”