2019
DOI: 10.1057/s41599-019-0227-8
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Divide and rule: ten lessons about Russian political influence activities in Europe

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to improve understanding of how Russia is conducting political influence activities against Europe. It examines current thinking and perceptions on this topic among Western secret services and is based on an analysis of approximately 40 annual reports from 15 secret services in 11 Western countries, covering the period 2014-2018. This activity is by nature covert, and the analysis given in these reports from Western secret services complements other research and shows the broad ran… Show more

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Cited by 48 publications
(26 citation statements)
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“…En trusselvurdering fra amerikansk etterretning til Senatet fremhevet Russland, Kina og Iran som aktører i forbindelse med valgpåvirkning (DNI, 2019). Av statlige aktører har vestlige sikkerhetstjenester identifisert Russland som den mest aktive aktøren for politisk påvirkning generelt ( Karlsen, 2019). Kina driver også betydelig politisk påvirkning, og det er en rekke andre mindre aktører, hvor saerlig Iran fremheves.…”
Section: Bakgrunnunclassified
“…En trusselvurdering fra amerikansk etterretning til Senatet fremhevet Russland, Kina og Iran som aktører i forbindelse med valgpåvirkning (DNI, 2019). Av statlige aktører har vestlige sikkerhetstjenester identifisert Russland som den mest aktive aktøren for politisk påvirkning generelt ( Karlsen, 2019). Kina driver også betydelig politisk påvirkning, og det er en rekke andre mindre aktører, hvor saerlig Iran fremheves.…”
Section: Bakgrunnunclassified
“…G.H. Karlsen (2019) analyses intelligence reports from various countries and argues that Russia has three primary strategic goals: ensuring the power and security of the Putin administration in the country; maintaining influence in the "near abroad" (former USSR countries except three Baltic states); and securing the status of a great power internationally. Russia's influence operations outside the post-Soviet space disseminate strategic narratives that amplify or shape perceptions of the world and political preferences in line with the Kremlin's foreign policy goals (Mölder, Sazonov, 2018;van Herpen, 2016).…”
Section: Strategic Narratives In the Kremlin's Influence Activitiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The Kremlin's official strategic narratives no longer speak about the Baltic states as an integral part of the Russian empire, but they are certainly interested in their connection with Russia's sphere of influence in that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would possibly become a "window to Europe" allowing Moscow to put constant pressure on Western political institutions such as the European Union and NATO (Radin, 2017;Karlsen, 2019). For this reason, the Putin regime is interested in fostering an unstable region with strong Eurosceptic sentiments.…”
Section: Strategic Narratives Constructed and Disseminated By Russia mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This being said, the range of threats emanating from Russia cannot be equated to their sole military dimension. As a matter of fact, threats coming from Russia embrace the broad spectrum of contemporary threats, from hard core military to political warfare, information operations, cyber attacks, under-the-radar covert and/or criminal action (see Rumer 2016, Hagen Karlsen 2019. Many of these threats can furthermore materialise from within the territory of the Alliance.…”
Section: The Evolving Nature Of the Russian Threatmentioning
confidence: 99%