Diversity in fertility patterns in Guatemala

Abstract

This study investigates urban and rural fertility trends in Guatemala up to 2002. It also aims to establish, using the theory of diffusion as its theoretical framework, the extent to which ethnicity and ethnic diversity are associated with geographical patterns in local‐level fertility after controlling for socio‐economic indicators. Data from the Demographic and Health Surveys of 1987, 1995–96 and 1998–99, the National Maternal and Child Health Survey of 2002 and the Census of 2002 were used. P/F ratios were calculated and used as an analytical tool and quality control measure of the data in order to establish the timing of changes in fertility patterns as measured by age‐specific fertility rates (ASFRs) based on exact exposure in four‐year periods from 1972 to 2002. Finally, the 2002 census data were used to analyse and model fertility at the municipio‐level using ordinary least squares regression. The results suggest a steady but very slow decline in fertility from 1972 until the mid‐1990s. Both the P/F ratios and ASFRs calculated using the Maternal and Child Health Survey and Census of 2002 show a sharp decline in fertility since 1998. The regression results for the census data suggest an independent and significant effect of ‘proportion of indigenous people’ and an almost significant effect of ethnic diversity on fertility at the municipio‐level. The very slow decline in fertility in Guatemala until fairly recently can be attributed to the fact that Guatemala has been lagging behind in terms of socio‐economic development and the additional challenge of having a culturally very diverse and segregated population, preventing the spread of modern reproductive ideas and behaviour. The accelerated fertility decline since the end of the 1990s seems likely to be associated with the widespread availability and increased uptake of family planning following declining fertility desires among its indigenous population. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Contraceptive use and intent in Guatemala

“…Researchers have also noted that rates of use are particularly low among the indigenous population (Bertrand, Seiber, and Escudero 2001;De Broe and Hinde 2006).…”

“…Education is included as a three-level variable: no education, some primary, some secondary (or beyond). Secondary school generally begins at around age 12, before the majority of Guatemalan women enter into sexual relationships (Grace and Sweeney 2009) and has a positive effect on contraceptive use (Bertrand, Seiber, and Escudero 2001;De Broe and Hinde 2006).…”

“…However, the combined impact of the civil war with other socio-demographic factors caused significant stagnation in the country-wide adoption of family planning. Guatemala's unstable and, at times, violent social and political climate are theorized to be the root causes of the "delayed contraceptive revolution" and have resulted in a limited supply and demand for contraception (Santiso-Galvez and Bertrand 2004;De Broe and Hinde 2006). According to the most recent reports, Guatemala ranks the lowest in overall contraceptive use among the neighboring Central American countries of El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua.…”

“…An increasing number of countries in both Central and South America are characterized by below replacement total fertility rates (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rates (CPR) matching those of more developed countries (De Broe and Hinde 2006;PRB 2007;Rosero-Bixby, Martin, and Martin-Garcia 2008). However, a closer look at country and regional family planning behavior in Latin America reveals exceptional subgroups with unusually high TFR and correspondingly low CPR.…”

“…However, a closer look at country and regional family planning behavior in Latin America reveals exceptional subgroups with unusually high TFR and correspondingly low CPR. Once a leader in family planning, and despite recent strides in contraceptive expansion and fertility decline, Guatemala has the highest TFR in Latin America and one of the lowest CPRs in the Western Hemisphere (Santiso-Galvez and Bertrand 2004;De Broe and Hinde 2006;PRB 2007). In a context where maternal and infant mortality rates are high, poverty is rampant, and malnutrition is common, empowering women with the knowledge and resources to plan their own families is vital.…”