Diverse Responses of Winter Wheat Yield and Water Use to Climate Change and Variability on the Semiarid Loess Plateau in China

Abstract

Crop production and water use in rainfed cropland are vulnerable to climate change. This study was to quantify diverse responses of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield and water use to climate change on the Loess Plateau (LP) under different combinations of climatic variables. The crop model APSIM was validated against field experimental data and applied to calculate yield and water use at 18 sites on the LP during 1961 to 2010. The coefficient of variation of yield ranged from 12 to 66%, in which the vulnerability of yield increased from the southeast (12%) to the northwest (66%). This change was attributed to the gradual increase in precipitation variation from the southeast to the northwest. An obvious warming trend during 1961 to 2010 resulted in a significant decrease in the growth duration by 1 to 5 d decade -1 . The yield at 12 sites was significantly reduced by 120 to 720 kg ha -1 decade -1 . Evapotranspiration was significantly decreased by 1 to 26 mm decade -1 ; however, water use efficiency at most sites showed no significant trend. Eighteen sites were classified into three climatic zones by cluster analysis: high temperature-high precipitation-low radiation (HHL), medium temperature-medium precipitation-medium radiation (MMM), and low temperature-low precipitation-high radiation (LLH). The trend of decreasing yield was smallest in the HHL cluster because of a minimal reduction in precipitation, while decreasing trends in yield and evapotranspiration were larger in the LLH and MMM because of larger reductions in precipitation. The results imply that among strategies such as breeding for long duration or drought tolerance, modification of the planting date will be necessary to avoid high temperatures associated with climate change. Abbreviations: ET, evapotranspiration; HHL, high temperature-high precipitation-low radiation cluster; LAI, leaf area index; LLH, low temperature-low precipitation-high radiation cluster; LP, Loess Plateau; MMM, medium temperature-medium precipitation-medium radiation cluster.Climatic factors such as solar radiation, precipitation, and temperature are major determinants of crop production and water use. Climate change is characterized by increased surface temperature and modified precipitation patterns (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Thus, crop production and water use are influenced by climate change. Consequently, a better understanding of the interactions between climatic factors and their impacts on crop production is essential for optimizing crop management, improving water use efficiency, and adopting reasonable strategies to mitigate climate change (Yu et al., 2014).The Loess Plateau (LP, Fig. 1) is located in northern China, where dryland agriculture is the primary economic activity. The LP has a typical continental monsoon climate, which means that it is cold in the winter and warm and humid in the summer. The average temperature ranges from 3.6°C in the north to 14.3°C in the south (Sun et al., 2010). Agriculture on the LP is vulner...

Spatiotemporal variation and trends in rainfall erosivity in China's dryland region during 1961–2012

“…In China's dryland region, various changes have been observed in temperature, precipitation and other climatic factors during the past decades (Fan et al, 2012;Ge et al, 2013;Meng et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2006;Zhao, 2013). Many studies analyzed the effect of recent climate changes on droughts (Yao et al, 2013), stream runoff Zhang et al, 2013), plant phonological development (Dai et al, 2012(Dai et al, , 2014Ge et al, 2013), and plant productivity (He et al, 2014;Xiao et al, 2013;Yao et al, 2012) in parts of the region. Some studies analyzed changes in rainfall erosivity, indicating that the rainfall erosivity tended to increase in north Xinjiang and north Tibet Plateau, but to decrease in the Loess Plateau (Liu et al, 2013;Xin et al, 2011;Zhang et al, 2003).…”

Agricultural vulnerability over the Chinese Loess Plateau in response to climate change: Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity

“…Annual precipitation decreases gradually from above 600 mm in the southeast to 100 mm in the northwest, with approximately 78 % occurring between May and October. Interannual variation is such that rainfall in wet years can be five times higher than in dry ones (He et al 2014). Notable climate change has been observed on the Loess Plateau in recent decades, with air temperature rising by 0.6°C and annual precipitation decreasing by 3 mm per decade (Piao et al 2010;Turner et al 2011;Wang et al 2012;He et al 2014).…”

“…Interannual variation is such that rainfall in wet years can be five times higher than in dry ones (He et al 2014). Notable climate change has been observed on the Loess Plateau in recent decades, with air temperature rising by 0.6°C and annual precipitation decreasing by 3 mm per decade (Piao et al 2010;Turner et al 2011;Wang et al 2012;He et al 2014). Furthermore, extreme events such as Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0727-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.…”

“…Furthermore, extreme events such as Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0727-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. droughts have become more frequent (Piao et al 2010;Turner et al 2011;He et al 2014).…”

“…Adaptation measures are needed for the Loess Plateau in the face of climate change and the expectation of even greater climatic variation in the future (Lu et al 2004;Nolan et al 2008;He et al 2014). Accordingly, a comprehensive management plan has been developed by the National Development and Reform Commission et al (2010) that prescribes ecological construction interventions based on geomorphic zoning.…”