Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century

Braganza, Karl; Karoly, David J.; Arblaster, Julie M.

doi:10.1029/2004gl019998

Cited by 342 publications

(295 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Rates of change for TM and TN showed similar spatial patterns, with the warming in the southeast region being generally weaker than the warming in the northwest region; however, for TX, severe warming was observed in the southeast. The increase in TN was larger than the increase in TX across the plateau as a whole, which is consistent both with global trends (Braganza, 2004;Lewis and Karoly, 2013) and with other regional trends (Shen et al, 2014;Wang et al, 2014). The inconsistent rates of change between TX and TN result in a general decrease in DTR, which is highly sensitive to small changes in either TX or TN (Dai et al, 1999).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Temperature and precipitation changes over the Loess Plateau between 1961 and 2011, based on high-density gauge observations

Sun

Miao

Duan

et al. 2015

Global and Planetary Change

112

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a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f oThe Loess Plateau has the most serious soil erosion in China and is the main source of sediment in the Yellow River. In this study, we systematically analyzed the changes in the mean and extreme values for temperature and precipitation over the Loess Plateau between 1961 and 2011, using a gridded dataset with high-density gauge data. Statistically significant positive trends (p b 0.05) in the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature values (TM, TX, and TN) were identified in almost all regions. Warming rates increased from the southeast to the northwest of the Loess Plateau for both TM and TN; however, for TX, the greatest warming increases were observed in the southeast region. We also found general decreases in the diurnal temperature range and the number of cold nights and cold days, and increases in the length of the growing season and the number of warm days and warm nights. Moreover, relatively intense changes occurred in the high percentile ranges for both TX and TN. The total amount of precipitation on wet days decreased over a large area of the Loess Plateau, particularly in the southeast region. The inequality in the spread of precipitation over the year (temporal inequality) increased extensively over the past fifty years in the wet region. Approximately 37.60% of the total area with a reduced amount of precipitation had concurrent decreases in both the frequency and intensity of rainfall. However, approximately 37.20% of the area with a reduced amount of precipitation had decreases in the frequency but increases in the intensity of rainfall. The proportion of days with light or moderate precipitation was decreased in the wet region which mainly located in the southwest of the Loess Plateau, but there were only minor changes in extreme precipitation events. Overall, when both temperature and precipitation changes were combined, we observed that the southwest of the Loess Plateau has undergone the largest degree of climate change. Consequently, both the ecological environment and local agriculture on the Loess Plateau will suffer increased challenges: the decline in water availability will lead to more frequent droughts, yet the risk of flood and soil erosion from extreme precipitation events will not be reduced.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Temperature and precipitation changes over the Loess Plateau between 1961 and 2011, based on high-density gauge observations

Sun

Miao

Duan

et al. 2015

Global and Planetary Change

112

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“…The global mean temperature changes in the first half century were partly a response to natural forcings but the warming in the later half century has mostly resulted from anthropogenic forcing (e.g., Meehl et al 2004). The models also show a decrease in DTR but of magnitude much smaller than that observed (Stenchikov and Robock 1995;Weaver 2002, 2003;Karoly et al 2003;Braganza et al 2004;Zhou et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcing to diurnal temperature range changes from 1950 to 1999: comparing multi-model simulations with observations

et al. 2009

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Observations show that the surface diurnal temperature range (DTR) has decreased since 1950s over most global land areas due to a smaller warming in maximum temperatures (T max ) than in minimum temperatures (T min ). This paper analyzes the trends and variability in T max , T min , and DTR over land in observations and 48 simulations from 12 global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models for the later half of the 20th century. It uses the modeled changes in surface downward solar and longwave radiation to interpret the modeled temperature changes. When anthropogenic and natural forcings are included, the models generally reproduce observed major features of the warming of T max and T min and the reduction of DTR. As expected the greenhouse gases enhanced surface downward longwave radiation (DLW) explains most of the warming of T max and T min while decreased surface downward shortwave radiation (DSW) due to increasing aerosols and water vapor contributes most to the decreases in DTR in the models. When only natural forcings are used, none of the observed trends are simulated. The simulated DTR decreases are much smaller than the observed (mainly due to the small simulated T min trend) but still outside the range of natural internal variability estimated from the models. The much larger observed decrease in DTR suggests the possibility of additional regional effects of anthropogenic forcing that the models can not realistically simulate, likely connected to changes in cloud cover, precipitation, and soil moisture. The small magnitude of the simulated DTR trends may be attributed to the lack of an increasing trend in cloud cover and deficiencies in charactering aerosols and important surface and boundary-layer processes in the models.

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“…Often temperature trend studies are performed on a monthly requiere que la tasa de cambio se cuantifique a nivel local y regional para precisar estrategias de prevención, adaptación/ mitigación en lugares específicos ya que la tendencia espacial y temporal local no obedece a la tendencia global (McGuire et al, 2012). A menudo, los estudios de tendencia de temperatura se realizan sobre un valor promedio mensual o anual, si bien este criterio ayuda a detectar el patrón de la variable, escapan detalles en los extremos térmicos que son importantes en agronomía y en recursos naturales; por tal razón se sugiere que la estimación de la tendencia se realice tanto para temperatura máxima (T max ) como para temperatura mínima (T min ) (Braganza et al, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Tendencia de temperaturas máximas y mínimas mensuales en Aguascalientes, México

Álvarez

Trujano²,

Capurata

et al. 2017

Remexca

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El objetivo de esta investigación fue analizar tendencias en los promedios de temperatura máxima (Tmax) y mínima (Tmin) mensual en Aguascalientes y series de tiempo de por lo menos 30 años. El análisis estadístico se realizó con la metodología de Mann-Kendall y la tasa de cambio se calculó con la pendiente de Theil. De 612 series de Tmin, 365 no fueron significativas, mientras que 247 si lo fueron, de estas series con tendencia significativa (p≤ 0.05), 129 tuvieron tendencia positiva y 118 tuvieron tendencia negativa. De 672 series de Tmax, 448 no fueron significativas, mientras que 224 si lo fueron, de estas series con tendencia significativa (p≤ 0.05), 167 tuvieron tendencia positiva y 57 tuvieron tendencia negativa. La mayor tendencia positiva (1.33 °C década-1) de Tmin fue en abril y la menor (0.09 °C década-1) en julio y septiembre, el promedio anual de las tendencias positivas fue 0.50 °C década-1; diciembre tuvo la mayor tendencia negativa (-1.42 °C década-1) y agosto tuvo la menor (-0.14 °C década-1), el promedio anual de tendencias negativas fue -0.59 °C década-1. En relación con Tmax, abril tuvo la mayor tendencia positiva (1.59 °C década-1) y diciembre tuvo la menor (0.18°C década-1), el promedio anual de tendencias positivas fue 0.61 °C década-1; octubre tuvo la mayor tendencia negativa (-1.51 °C década-1) y septiembre tuvo la menor (-0.19 °C década-1), el promedio anual de tendencias negativas fue -0.68 °C década-1. En Aguascalientes, un número pequeño de localidades presenta enfriamiento y una parte importante se está calentando, la región que manifiesta cambios en la temperatura está presentando un clima más extremo y cambios en el rango térmico diurno (RTD).

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Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century

Cited by 342 publications

References 17 publications

Temperature and precipitation changes over the Loess Plateau between 1961 and 2011, based on high-density gauge observations

Temperature and precipitation changes over the Loess Plateau between 1961 and 2011, based on high-density gauge observations

Detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcing to diurnal temperature range changes from 1950 to 1999: comparing multi-model simulations with observations

Tendencia de temperaturas máximas y mínimas mensuales en Aguascalientes, México

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