Tendencia de temperaturas máximas y mínimas mensuales en Aguascalientes, México

Abstract


 
 
 El objetivo de esta investigación fue analizar tendencias en los promedios de temperatura máxima (Tmax) y mínima (Tmin) mensual en Aguascalientes y series de tiempo de por lo menos 30 años. El análisis estadístico se realizó con la metodología de Mann-Kendall y la tasa de cambio se calculó con la pendiente de Theil. De 612 series de Tmin, 365 no fueron significativas, mientras que 247 si lo fueron, de estas series con tendencia significativa (p≤ 0.05), 129 tuvieron tendencia positiva y 118 tuvieron tendencia negativa. De 672 series de Tmax, 448 no fueron significativas, mientras que 224 si lo fueron, de estas series con tendencia significativa (p≤ 0.05), 167 tuvieron tendencia positiva y 57 tuvieron tendencia negativa. La mayor tendencia positiva (1.33 °C década-1) de Tmin fue en abril y la menor (0.09 °C década-1) en julio y septiembre, el promedio anual de las tendencias positivas fue 0.50 °C década-1; diciembre tuvo la mayor tendencia negativa (-1.42 °C década-1) y agosto tuvo la menor (-0.14 °C década-1), el promedio anual de tendencias negativas fue -0.59 °C década-1. En relación con Tmax, abril tuvo la mayor tendencia positiva (1.59 °C década-1) y diciembre tuvo la menor (0.18°C década-1), el promedio anual de tendencias positivas fue 0.61 °C década-1; octubre tuvo la mayor tendencia negativa (-1.51 °C década-1) y septiembre tuvo la menor (-0.19 °C década-1), el promedio anual de tendencias negativas fue -0.68 °C década-1. En Aguascalientes, un número pequeño de localidades presenta enfriamiento y una parte importante se está calentando, la región que manifiesta cambios en la temperatura está presentando un clima más extremo y cambios en el rango térmico diurno (RTD).
 
 

Analysis of Anomalies and Trends of Climate Change Indices in the State of Zacatecas, Mexico

“…The summer, as was mentioned in the description of the general trend, presents slope values near zero in most of the state, which points at a lack of changes in the summer. In this regard, the results of the present study are consistent with those from studies such as [59,62,63], for the states of Zacatecas and Aguascalientes, and with those from [39], which also reports on a decrease in minimum temperatures; however, studies such as [60,61] report partly different results for the Zacatecas region.…”

Analysis of Anomalies and Trends of Climate Change Indices in Zacatecas, Mexico

“…The summer, as was mentioned in the description of the general trend, presents slope values near zero in most of the state, which points at a lack of changes in the summer. In this regard, the results of the present study are consistent with those from studies such as [64,67,68], for the states of Zacatecas and Aguascalientes, and with those from [41], which also reports on a decrease in minimum temperatures; however, studies such as [65,66] report partially different results for the Zacatecas region.…”

“…The spatio-temporal evolution of extreme maximum temperature shown in Figure 10b indicates that the highest temperatures occur in areas below 22 • N. The inter-annual behavior can also be inferred from the clearly visible winter seasons, colored in yellow, when TXx decreases by approximately 5 • C. Since 1995, the red tone intensifies with the increasing temperatures in most of the state. Other studies focusing in our study area have also reported increases in maximum temperatures observed in historical series [64][65][66][67], as well as studies performed in other regions in Mexico where maximum temperatures have increased [36][37][38][39]41,68]. The hottest years in the study period are 2009, 2010, and 2011, when temperatures close to 40 • C were recorded throughout the state.…”

“…Additionally, a study by [67] presents results in which maximum temperature was observed to increase in the southeast, and minimum temperature was found to decrease in the south and north regions. The behavior of these two variables has also been observed in regions close to the study area, such as the neighboring state of Aguascalientes, where the authors of [68] found a positive trend in maximum temperature and a negative trend in minimum temperature. Nation-wide research such as the study by [41] reports on a trend of increased number of summer days, increased extreme maximum temperature, and lower extreme minimum temperature.…”

“…Similar studies focused on Zacatecas and other Mexican states confirm the increase in maximum temperature; however, the same result is not true with respect to minimum temperature, since an increasing trend in minimum temperature has also been found in parts of Chihuahua, Veracruz, Chiapas, and Zacatecas [37][38][39][40]65,66]. Trends are therefore observed to vary depending on geographical location, time of the year, and type of temperature (maximum or minimum) [68]; these results are not unlike other findings from studies throughout the globe and are evidence that local and regional trends can be representative of planetary climate [64]. Concerning precipitation, the results obtained in the present study were closely related to other investigations [72,74,76] in which precipitation patterns were found to be largely due to oscillations such as PDO and ENSO.…”