Distribution modelling of the garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus (Linnaeus, 1766) with novel climate change indicators

Abstract

The garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus has been declining in both abundance and range since the mid-twentieth century. The eastern edge of its range has contracted from the Ural Mountains to eastern Germany. Habitat loss and fragmentation has been the most supported theory to explain the observed decline. Climate change has been implicated in declines of other terrestrial mammals, but not investigated for E. quercinus. To better understand the factors influencing the distribution of this species and to map habitat suitability for E. quercinus across Europe, we created a Maxent species distribution model. Among the main environmental variables used for the modelling, two novel climate change indicator variables were produced to indicate the degree of climate change between the early twentieth century and the present. Areas of high suitability were mapped, and variable importance estimated using jackknife tests and variable contribution metrics. The climate change indicators outperformed many conventional variables, which could indicate that climate change is a factor behind the current distribution of E. quercinus. We also analysed the land use types where presence points of E. quercinus were located and whether they were in areas of “high nature value farmland”. Over 30% of all spatially filtered presence points corresponded to high nature value farmland areas. Our results could indicate a role for changing climate (particularly in temperature) in the range decline E. quercinus, and for high nature value farmland practices in conserving this species. Field studies and improved monitoring for this species are recommended to confirm both possible findings.

Haplotype-resolved genome and population genomics of the threatened garden dormouse in Europe

“…For the ecologically-similar hazel dormouse, warmer and wetter winters have been found to have a negative effect on adult survivorship, possibly because warmer temperatures cause animals to wake during hibernation, thereby expending energy and causing a reduction in fat reserves (Combe et al 2023). Garden dormice hibernate in regions of harsh winter, and their life histories appear strongly tied to winter temperatures, as well as the onset and duration of the season (Bennett and Richard 2021; Mahlert et al 2018). Timing and duration of activity periods and hibernation vary widely based on local climate conditions, with Mediterranean populations hibernating only 1–2 months per year, if at all, while Alpine populations may hibernate for 7 months per year (Bertolino et al 2001).…”

Predicting current and future potential distributions of the greater bandicoot rat (Bandicota indica) under climate change conditions

“…In this study, we explored the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of the common rodent pest, B. indica, using the MaxEnt model. The ENMeval R package was used for 46,47 The optimized MaxEnt model showed excellent performance, with an average AUC value of 0.958 ± 0.006, higher than those of the North American deer mouse Peromyscus maniculatus (< 0.9), 30 garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus (0.781), 31 great gerbil Rhombomys opimus (0.94), 56 mole shrew Anourosorex squamipes (0.91), 57 De Winton's shrew Chodsigoa hypsibia (0.90), 57 and Chapman's rice rat Handleyomys chapmani (0.87). 58 With high-quality occurrence records and environmental variables, 59 the potential distribution simulation of B. indica in this study is accurate and reliable.…”

“…MaxEnt provides the most robust outcomes and sustains accurate assessments across all species and sample volumes, outperforming other algorithms when sample volumes are small 27,28 . Hence, MaxEnt is widely used for potential distribution predictions and risk assessments of numerous rodent pests 29–32 …”

“…27,28 Hence, MaxEnt is widely used for potential distribution predictions and risk assessments of numerous rodent pests. [29][30][31][32] The greater bandicoot rat, Bandicota indica (Mammalia: Muridae), is a typical tropical and subtropical rodent pest that is widespread throughout the Indian subcontinent and Indochina. 33 They are commonly found in open fields or agricultural areas and are not known to live inside houses or their surroundings.…”