Distance Traveled in Times of Pandemic: An Endogenous Switching Regression Approach

Abstract

This paper studies the change in the distance traveled by domestic tourists considering the pre- and post-pandemic outbreak summer periods of 2019 and 2020. Using representative monthly microdata involving more than 31,000 trips conducted by Spanish residents, we examine the heterogeneity in behavioral adaptation to COVID-19 based on sociodemographic and trip-related characteristics. To account for selection effects and the potential change in the population composition of travelers between the two periods, we estimate an endogenous switching regression that conducts separate regressions for the pre- and post-pandemic periods in a unified econometric framework. Our results point to heterogeneous shifts in the distance traveled by domestic travelers after COVID-19 outbreak per sociodemographic group, with notable differences by travel purpose and lower relevance of traditional determinants like income.

Preference Shifts During Health Shocks: Foreign Tourists’ Expenditure–Price Elasticity Throughout the Pandemic

“…The shifts in expenditure elasticities we document are therefore subject to potential selection effects. As documented in previous works ( Boto-García & Leoni, 2021 ; X. Li et al, 2021 ), at least during the summer of 2020, many tourists opted to travel domestically or to nearby countries. Since there is evidence of heterogeneity in loss aversion among tourists ( Nicolau, 2012 ), we cannot completely rule out that the findings are partially affected by a composition effect.…”

“…The shifts in expenditure elasticities we document are therefore subject to potential selection effects. As documented in previous works (Boto-Garcı´a & Leoni, 2021;X. Li et al, 2021), at least during the summer of 2020, many tourists opted to travel domestically or to nearby countries.…”

“…Most importantly, given the high dependence of its economy on the tourism sector ( Minondo, 2021 ), a proper understanding of foreign tourists’ expenditure patterns during pandemic times is of high economic relevance. In this regard, a growing body of literature has examined tourism demand reactions to COVID-19 in Spain ( Baños-Pino et al, 2023 ; Boto-García & Leoni, 2021 ; Boto-García & Mayor, 2022 ; Peco-Torres et al, 2021 ).…”

“…Perceived health risks, negative affect and threat salience have caused strong negative emotional reactions to travel abroad ( Chua et al, 2021 ), particularly to destinations with high infectious cases ( X. Li et al, 2021 ). In this regard, recent evidence points to important shifts in travel patterns, such as a switch toward domestic tourism ( Boto-García & Leoni, 2021 ), avoidance of crowded accommodations ( Park et al, 2021 ), drops in social interactions at the destination ( Z. Li et al, 2020 ) or greater preference for variety seeking ( Kim et al., 2022 ), among others.…”

“…From an empirical perspective, the paper adds to a large body of research that estimates expenditure equations to uncover tourists’ changes in consumption during economic downturns ( Alegre & Pou, 2016 ; Alegre et al, 2013 ; Bernini et al, 2020 ; Stråle, 2022 ). In the COVID-19 context, a growing body of literature has examined the effects of the pandemic on different outcomes, including travel destination choices ( X. Li et al, 2021 ), the distance traveled ( Boto-García & Leoni, 2021 ), the type of activities to perform at the destination ( Ren et al, 2022 ) and hotel demand resilience ( Boto-García & Mayor, 2022 ), among others. However, studies on potential expenditure shifts are scarcer.…”