Disentangling the drivers of change in Common Teal migration phenology over 50 years: land use vs. climate change effects

Pernollet, Claire A.; Massez, Grégoire; Cavallo, François; Simon, Géraldine; Guillemain, Matthieu

doi:10.1007/s10336-015-1171-z

Cited by 20 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…It is likely that future changes in and relationships between wintering and migration habitat and Whooping Crane distribution will increasingly interact with migration patterns observed in the central United States. Temporal and spatial patterns of a number of migratory birds have changed in unanticipated ways as changes in climate, land use, and habitat and food resources interact (Guillemain et al 2015). Regulatory agencies, non-governmental organizations, and citizens must be prepared to adapt conservation efforts to these changes to maintain, continue, and secure the ongoing recovery of this critically endangered species.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, these impacts may not be uniform across wintering, breeding and migratory areas (Both and Visser 2001;Guillemain et al 2015). Since individuals and populations use these areas sequentially throughout their annual cycle, climate change induced consequences in one area may have consequences and repercussions in other areas.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Northern Hemisphere, spring arrival at breeding areas has advanced for many migratory species (Lane and Pearman 2003;Both and Visser 2005;Murphy-Klassen et al 2005;Brown and Brown 2014). Other migratory species have altered their migration phenology by arriving later in spring (Murphy-Klassen et al 2005) or migrating earlier in fall (Guillemain et al 2015) while some have not altered their temporal migration patterns (Both and Visser 2001;Murphy-Klassen et al 2005). In addition to longterm climate trends, migration phenology may be influenced by the occurrence and interaction of resource availability, shortterm climate patterns (Brown and Brown 2014;Ward et al 2015), and weather events (Nisbet and Drury 1968;Shariati-Najafabadi et al 2016) in breeding and wintering areas and along migratory routes (Guillemain et al 2015).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(Wauchope et al 2017). Other species of waterbirds (e.g., waterfowl, cranes, pelicans, cormorants) have shown temporal shifts in migration, apparently in response to increased temperatures (Murphy-Klassen et al 2005;Guillemain et al 2015), and Whooping Cranes have recently demonstrated unusual migration and wintering patterns .…”

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confidence: 99%

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Temporal Migration Shifts in the Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) Across North America

Jorgensen

Brown

2017

Waterbirds

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal Migration Shifts in the Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) Across North America

Jorgensen

Brown

2017

Waterbirds

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“…The autumn migration of dabbling ducks is thought to be controlled by changes in photoperiod; habitat suitability and management; food accessibility; weather severity, including effects from both temperature (thermoregulatory cost) and snow cover; feeding ecology and competition [7,12,17–32]. The cost of migration is high [33–34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century

et al. 2016

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Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration is expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.

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Migratory connectivity of North American waterfowl across administrative flyways

Roberts

Scarpignato

Huysman

et al. 2023

Ecological Applications

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Management of waterfowl that migrate seasonally across North America occurs within four flyways that were delineated in the early 1900s to include the annual movements of populations. Movements may have changed over the past century since the administrative flyways were established, and may do so while management plans are in use, so information about transitions among flyways through time can illustrate how management assumptions may change. Today there are more than 12 million records from 60 years of migratory waterfowl band recoveries to assess adaptive management approaches that will be most effective when they account for movements within and between flyways. We examined how much the movement of North American waterfowl occurs between flyways, whether those movements have changed through time, and whether movements of mallards are representative of multiple species, as suggested by current harvest management strategies. We estimated the probability a duck would transition from one flyway to another and the strength of migratory connectivity (MC) for each species within and among flyways. We used capture-mark-recovery models to estimate population-specific movement within and among flyways (transition probabilities) for 15 migratory waterfowl species that were banded during breeding and recovered during winter. We developed new functionality in the R package MigConnectivity to estimate the species-specific strength of MC using transition probability samples from the capture-mark-recovery models.We found the regular movement of duck populations among flyways, overall weak MC, and no consistent change in migratory movements through time. Mallard movements were median among all duck species, but significantly different from many species, particularly diving ducks. Despite the significant movement between flyways, our work suggests flyway management of waterfowl matches many of the seasonal movements of these species when considering mid-continent flyway management. We recommend models accounting for all transition probabilities between populations and regularly estimating harvest derivations, transition probabilities, and MC metrics to verify that the current movements match model assumptions.

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Disentangling the drivers of change in Common Teal migration phenology over 50 years: land use vs. climate change effects

Cited by 20 publications

References 54 publications

Temporal Migration Shifts in the Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) Across North America

Temporal Migration Shifts in the Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) Across North America

Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century

Migratory connectivity of North American waterfowl across administrative flyways

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