Discharge Alterations of the Mures River, Romania under Ensembles of Future Climate Projections and Sequential Threats to Aquatic Ecosystem by the End of the Century

Abstract

This study aims to assess the potential alterations in the hydrological regime attributed to projected climate change in one of the largest rivers in the Carpathian Area, the Mures River, and to estimate associated threats to riverine ecosystem. The eco-hydrological model, Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), was applied on the Mures River basin, calibrated and validated against records at a gauging station in Alba-Julia town. A set of nine future projections for climatic parameters under one emissions scenario A1B over the period 1971-2100 were fed into the SWIM model. To provide functional link between hydrological regimes and riverine ecosystems, each of the nine simulated discharge time series were introduced into the IHA (Indicators of Hydrological Alterations) tool. Triggered changes in hydrological patterns of the Mures River were assessed at the basin and sub-basin scales. The obtained results present a strong agreement through all nine climate projections; suggesting an increase in the discharge of Mures River for the winter season; a decrease in summer and prolongation of the low flow periods by the end of the century. Anticipated changes would pose threats to aquatic ecosystems; altering normal life-cycles; and depleting natural habitats of species.

Impacts of Climate Change on Riverine Ecosystems: Alterations of Ecologically Relevant Flow Dynamics in the Danube River and Its Major Tributaries

“…Similar to our results, they found a model agreement for a projected increase in winter discharge, a decrease in summer and late spring flows, as well as a prolongation of low flow periods until the end of the 21st century. While our results indicate a decrease in high flow magnitudes in this area, Lobanova et al [22] found a slight increase in median values for the duration of high flow events, but no model agreement for the number of high flow events per year.…”

“…Lobanova et al [22] carried out a small scale modeling study for a Carpathian headwater of the Mures River, analyzing different "Indicators of Hydrological Alteration" by [17] under an ensemble of various climate models (A1B). Similar to our results, they found a model agreement for a projected increase in winter discharge, a decrease in summer and late spring flows, as well as a prolongation of low flow periods until the end of the 21st century.…”

Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Danube River and Its Tributaries Using an Ensemble of Climate Scenarios

“…For the Middle Danube basin, the few available project studies agree on an increase in runoff in winter and, apart from less future precipitation in the summer months, make some contradictory statements regarding the rest of the year [15,54]. Though our ensemble results for the middle Danube River Basin show a larger range in the direction of change outside of the winter months, the majority of the scenarios indicate a decrease in runoff from April-September.…”

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling

“…In recent years, the SWIM model has been applied for many river basins in Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America [32][33][34][35][36]. The modelling was focused not only on hydrological issues, but also on sediments, extreme events, crop yield, and water quality [37].…”