Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Danube River and Its Tributaries Using an Ensemble of  Climate Scenarios

Stagl, Judith; Hattermann, Fred F.

doi:10.3390/w7116139

Cited by 65 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) is above 0.6 for most of the gauges used for calibration and validation on a daily basis (and above 0.7 on a monthly basis) ( Table 1). For the main stations of the Danube River, the results are "good" to "very good" [39], with a monthly NSE (NSE m ) above 0.78 [37]. This also applies for the seasonality and the flow duration curve as shown in Figure 2 for the Danube River station Ceatal Izmail near the outlet to its Delta.…”

Section: River Discharge Simulation With the Eco-hydrological Model Swimmentioning

confidence: 69%

“…This also applies for the seasonality and the flow duration curve as shown in Figure 2 for the Danube River station Ceatal Izmail near the outlet to its Delta. NSE (NSEm) above 0.78 [37]. This also applies for the seasonality and the flow duration curve as shown in Figure 2 for the Danube River station Ceatal Izmail near the outlet to its Delta.…”

Section: River Discharge Simulation With the Eco-hydrological Model Swimmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model is able to adequately simulate daily time series of river discharge for the Danube River and its major tributaries [37]. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) is above 0.6 for most of the gauges used for calibration and validation on a daily basis (and above 0.7 on a monthly basis) ( Table 1).…”

Section: River Discharge Simulation With the Eco-hydrological Model Swimmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the Danube River catchment, the SWIM model was successfully validated and applied towards climate impact assessment [37]. The model setup for the entire Danube catchment includes 1224 subbasins and 30,807 hydrotopes.…”

Section: River Discharge Simulation With the Eco-hydrological Model Swimmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SWIM has been successfully applied at numerous mesoscales and large catchments for river discharge and extreme events (floods and low flows; [30]). A detailed description of the SWIM model setup and input data for the Danube river catchment is given by Stagl et al [37].…”

Section: River Discharge Simulation With the Eco-hydrological Model Swimmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Climate Change on Riverine Ecosystems: Alterations of Ecologically Relevant Flow Dynamics in the Danube River and Its Major Tributaries

Stagl

Hattermann

2016

Water

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River flow dynamics play an important role for aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Climate change is projected to significantly alter river flow regimes in Europe and worldwide. In this study, we evaluate future river flow alterations in the entire Danube River basin by means of ecologically relevant river flow indicators under different climate warming scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The process-based watershed model SWIM was applied for 1124 sub-catchments to simulate daily time series of river discharge for the Danube River and its tributaries under future scenario conditions. The derived hydrological data series were then statistically analyzed using eight eco-hydrological indicators to distinguish intra-year variations in the streamflow regime. The results are used to: (a) analyze the possible impacts of climate change on the ecologically relevant flow regime components; and (b) identify regions at the highest risk of climate change-driven flow alterations. Our results indicate that climate change will distinctively alter the recent ecological flow regime of the Danube River and, in particular, the tributaries of the Middle and Lower Danube basin. While for the RCP 2.6 scenario the projected flow alterations might still be considered moderate for many rivers, the impacts might strongly accelerate if global mean temperatures rise more than 2 • C compared to pre-industrial times. Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 warming scenarios, the recent ecological flow regime might be highly altered, posing a serious threat to river and floodplain ecosystems.

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Section: River Discharge Simulation With the Eco-hydrological Model Swimmentioning

confidence: 69%

Section: River Discharge Simulation With the Eco-hydrological Model Swimmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: River Discharge Simulation With the Eco-hydrological Model Swimmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: River Discharge Simulation With the Eco-hydrological Model Swimmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: River Discharge Simulation With the Eco-hydrological Model Swimmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Climate Change on Riverine Ecosystems: Alterations of Ecologically Relevant Flow Dynamics in the Danube River and Its Major Tributaries

Stagl

Hattermann

2016

Water

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Anthropogenic effects on the contemporary sediment budget of the lower Rhine-Meuse Delta channel network

Cox

Huismans

Leuven

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Coastal regions and deltas are home to half of the world's population, and are locations for major ports and important global economic hotspots. These regions both record and are subject to, intense global natural and anthropogenic environmental change (Bianchi & Allison, 2009). They are also at the highest risk of climate change-induced sea-level rise (Giosan et al., 2014;Elliott et al., 2019). One of the key factors in determining if and how deltas will cope with sea-level rise is sediment management and in particular, actions that can increase sedimentation at desired locations (Tessler et al., 2015). To maintain their elevation in the face of sea-level rise, deltas need sufficient sediment (Giosan et al., 2014;Syvitski et al., 2009). A lack of sediment in a delta leads to a myriad of problems including channel deepening causing salinity intrusion (Eslami et al., 2019), increased flood risk from tidal penetration and surges and a loss of ecologically rich areas (Best, 2019).

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Implications of climate‐change‐induced stressors and water management for sterlet populations in the Middle and Upper River Danube

Šindler,

Kubala,

Senko

et al. 2024

River Research & Apps

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Sturgeons are a group of iconic rheophilic fish whose populations worldwide are currently undergoing significant declines. The study investigates the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities, particularly the Gabčíkovo barrage system, on the survival and distribution of the sterlet, the last surviving sturgeon species in the Middle and Upper Danube River, specifically in the river part rkm 1708–1920 divided into three river sections: PT1 (Danube river part 1: rkm 1708–Gabčíkovo impoundment), PT2 (Danube river part 2: rkm 1854–1920), and PT3 (Old Danube part 3: rkm 1850–1810). Between years 1996 and 2020, water temperatures in the Danube River (PT1, PT2) rose by over 1°C on average, with the Old Danube (PT3) experiencing an alarming average increase of 3.5°C (df = 2, F = 145.03, p = <2.2e‐16). Consequently, suitable sterlet habitat (depth ≥4 m) in the Old Danube (PT3) now covers only 11% of its total area compared with 67% in PT1 and 75% in PT2 (flow rate = 1924.27 m3 s−1) due to altered flow regimes, water levels, and siltation. Sterlets are increasingly caught in an artificial channel below to the Gabčíkovo Hydroelectric Power Plant (80%–90% of annual total catch), suggesting a shift in their distribution patterns. Conversely, there has been a notable decline in sterlet populations in other river sections, including a decrease in a section with moderate ecological status according to Water Frame Directive criteria. In light of these findings, the study proposes several mitigation measures to improve the status of the sterlet population in the area.

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Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Danube River and Its Tributaries Using an Ensemble of Climate Scenarios

Cited by 65 publications

References 59 publications

Impacts of Climate Change on Riverine Ecosystems: Alterations of Ecologically Relevant Flow Dynamics in the Danube River and Its Major Tributaries

Impacts of Climate Change on Riverine Ecosystems: Alterations of Ecologically Relevant Flow Dynamics in the Danube River and Its Major Tributaries

Anthropogenic effects on the contemporary sediment budget of the lower Rhine-Meuse Delta channel network

Implications of climate‐change‐induced stressors and water management for sterlet populations in the Middle and Upper River Danube

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