Disappearing Arctic Lakes

Smith, L. C.; Sheng, Yongwei; MacDonald, Glen M.; Hinzman, L. D.

doi:10.1126/science.1108142

Cited by 907 publications

(824 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Many of the ecosystem types that were abundant in our study area are similar to those in the circumpolar region (Walker et al 2005), and the main drivers of change, such as thermokarst , fire (Barrett et al 2011), shrub expansion (Myers- Smith et al 2012), and lake drainage (Smith et al 2005) also are common in the Russian and Canadian north. Thus, the types of shifts in vegetation in northwest Alaska are likely to be widespread with their accompanying effects on albedo, evapotranspiration, and biomass across the broader circumpolar region and provide feedbacks to the global system (Chapin et al 2006;Euskirchen et al 2009;Rocha et al 2012;SNAP 2012;Pearson et al 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska

Jorgenson¹,

Marcot

Swanson

et al. 2015

Climatic Change

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Climate warming affects arctic and boreal ecosystems by interacting with numerous biophysical factors across heterogeneous landscapes. To assess potential effects of warming on diverse local-scale ecosystems (ecotypes) across northwest Alaska, we compiled data on historical areal changes over the last 25-50 years. Based on historical rates of change relative to time and temperature, we developed three state-transition models to project future changes in area for 60 ecotypes involving 243 potential transitions during three 30-year periods (ending 2040, 2070, 2100). The time model, assuming changes over the past 30 years continue at the same rate, projected a net change, or directional shift, of 6 % by 2100. The temperature model, using past rates of change relative to the past increase in regional mean annual air temperatures (1°C/30 year), projected a net change of 17 % in response to expected warming of 2, 4, and 6°C at the end of the three periods. A rate-adjusted temperature model, which adjusted transition rates (±50 %) based on assigned feedbacks associated with 23 biophysical drivers, estimated a net change of 13 %, with 33 ecotypes gaining and 23 ecotypes losing area. Major drivers included shrub and tree expansion, fire, succession, and thermokarst. Overall, projected A. R. DeGange Alaska Climate Science Center, U. S. Geological Survey, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA changes will be modest over the next century even though climate warming increased transition rates up to 9 fold. The strength of this state-transition modeling is that it used a large dataset of past changes to provide a comprehensive assessment of likely future changes associated with numerous drivers affecting the full diversity of ecosystems across a broad region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska

Jorgenson¹,

Marcot

Swanson

et al. 2015

Climatic Change

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“…The basins of most of the Cape Herschel ponds are underlain by granitic bedrock. In contrast, the temporary thermokarst ponds, which characterize many Subarctic regions, are underlain by relatively thick, unconsolidated material, and therefore are highly variable systems, where changes in permafrost may profoundly influence water-level changes (6). Consequently, water levels in ponds such as those at Cape Herschel are not similarly influenced by permafrost drainage and represent a more direct link to important atmospheric variables, such as temperature and precipitation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Crossing the final ecological threshold in high Arctic ponds

Smol

Douglas

2007

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

329

285

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A characteristic feature of most Arctic regions is the many shallow ponds that dot the landscape. These surface waters are often hotspots of biodiversity and production for microorganisms, plants, and animals in this otherwise extreme terrestrial environment. However, shallow ponds are also especially susceptible to the effects of climatic changes because of their relatively low water volumes and high surface area to depth ratios. Here, we describe our findings that some high Arctic ponds, which paleolimnological data indicate have been permanent water bodies for millennia, are now completely drying during the polar summer. By comparing recent pond water specific conductance values to similar measurements made in the 1980s, we link the disappearance of the ponds to increased evaporation/precipitation ratios, probably associated with climatic warming. The final ecological threshold for these aquatic ecosystems has now been crossed: complete desiccation.climatic change ͉ desiccation ͉ environmental change ͉ limnology T he effects of climatic change are expected to be greatly amplified in polar regions because of various positive feedback mechanisms (1). However, because long-term monitoring data are generally lacking, little is known about the ecological repercussions of recent warming. In an attempt to determine the nature and magnitude of environmental changes in these high-latitude, climatically sensitive regions, we have been systematically monitoring a suite of study ponds on Cape Herschel (78°37ЈN, 74°42ЈW; Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada; Fig. 1). We used identical techniques (2, 3) to collect detailed limnological data from the ponds in the summers of 1983, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2004, and 2006. Additional observations were available from other scientists working at Cape Herschel since the 1970s (3). Collectively, these data represent the longest record of systematic limnological monitoring from the high Arctic.In this paper, we summarize over two decades of limnological observations and dovetail these records with our paleolimnological studies. Using these data, we show that some high Arctic pond ecosystems, which represent the most common aquatic habitat in many polar regions, have desiccated as a consequence of climate change, i.e., increasing evaporation/precipitation (E/P) ratios. Results and DiscussionOver the 24-year monitoring window covered by our detailed surveys, we recorded evidence of recent lower water levels and changes in water chemistry data (e.g., increased specific conductance) consistent with increased E/P and warmer temperatures. Until recently, our study sites were permanent features of the landscape, as they contained water until freeze-up in September. However, a major threshold was crossed, associated with the most recent warming trends in the Arctic, because, by early July 2006, several of our main study ponds had dried up, whereas others had very much reduced water levels.The Cape Herschel study sites, many of which have existed for millennia (4, 5), are typical o...

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“…Geophysical surveys in River Source Region also suggested that warming temperatures lead to thinning and eventual breaching of permafrost, which may be the reason for shrinkage of most large and mature closed-lakes. As mentioned by Smith et al (2005) and Riordan et al (2006), initial warming leads to the lake expansion and followed by drainage as the permafrost degrades still further. Then it resulted to a declining water surface.…”

Section: Permafrost Degradation Further Intensified the Shrinkagementioning

confidence: 99%

Changing inland lakes responding to climate warming in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

et al. 2011

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The main portion of Tibetan Plateau has experienced statistically significant warming over the past 50 years, especially in cold seasons. This paper aims to identify and characterize the dynamics of inland lakes that located in the hinterland of Tibetan Plateau responding to climate change. We compared satellite imageries in late 1970s and early 1990s with recent to inventory and track changes in lakes after three decades of rising temperatures in the region. It showed warm and dry trend in climate with significant accelerated increasing annual mean temperature over the last 30 years, however, decreasing periodically annual precipitation and no obvious trend in potential evapotranspiration during the same period. Our analysis indicated widespread declines in inland lake's abundance and area in the whole origin of the Yellow River and southeastern origin of the Yangtze River. In contrast, the western and northern origin of the Yangtze River revealed completely reverse change. The regional lake surface area decreased by 11,499 ha or 1.72% from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, and increased by 6,866 ha or 1.04% from the early 1990s to 2004. Shrinking inland lakes may become a common feature in the discontinuous permafrost regions as a consequence of warming climate and thawing permafrost. Furthermore, obvious expanding were found in continuous permafrost regions due to climate warming and glacier retreating. The results may provide information for the scientific recognition of the responding events to the climate change recorded by the inland lakes.

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Disappearing Arctic Lakes

Cited by 907 publications

References 6 publications

Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska

Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska

Crossing the final ecological threshold in high Arctic ponds

Changing inland lakes responding to climate warming in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

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