Dinâmica Espaço Tempo Da Demanda Por Internet: As Cidades Do Futuro No Cenário Brasileiro De Telecomunicações

Abstract

RESUMOAs necessidades da sociedade digital, como conectividade e acessibilidade, são alteradas de acordo com o tempo e o espaço. Logo, a dinâmica espaço-temporal da demanda por internet transforma o planejamento de investimentos em infraestrutura de telecomunicações em grande desafio. Antever as necessidades de uma sociedade digital em um futuro próximo é uma tarefa complexa, pois o desempenho do mercado é repleto de inovações e incertezas. Então, como convergir a oferta e a demanda das necessidades da sociedade digital com as cidades do futuro? Este trabalho apresenta pesquisa experimental em que uma metodologia é desenvolvida. Para isso, busca compreender os fenômenos que constituem o comportamento da demanda por internet e avaliar os efeitos espaço-temporais em sua dinâmica. Os resultados mostram que os efeitos ao longo do tempo têm impactos distintos sobre a demanda por internet em cada localidade. Tais observações mostram, sobretudo, que a demanda por internet é uma função dependente do espaço-tempo, capaz de influenciar decisões de investimento em infraestrutura de telecomunicações, maximizando o lucro e gerando externalidades positivas, como, por exemplo, na universalização do acesso à internet, a difusão da sociedade digital e a edificação das cidades do futuro.Palavras-chave: sociedade digital; conectividade; mercado de incertezas; ambiente de inovações. ABSTRACTThe needs of the digital society, such as connectivity and accessibility, are altered according to the time and space. These space-time demand dynamics turn the telecommunications infrastructure investment planning into a major challenge. Thus, predicting the needs of a digital society in the near future is a complex task, as the market performance is fraught innovations with uncertainties. So, how does one converge the supply and demand needs, cited in an environment that is constantly innovating, such as the future cities? Understanding the supply and demand of internet market behavior should include both expectations and the development of a long-term solution. This paper presents an experimental research where a methodology is developed. For this, it seeks to understand the phenomena that constitutes to the internet demand behavior and to evaluate the space-time effects on its dynamics. The proposed method indicates that temporal effects in the internet impacts demand differently as the analyzed city is changed. The results show that space-time may have an influence on telecommunications infrastructure investment decisions. Thus, the investment decision-making process would maximize profit when space-time analyses are considered. The contribution to telecommunications investment planning methods, will involve the digital society universalization in future cities.

Expand or Oversize? Planning Internet Access Network in a Demand Growth Scenario

“…Taking Brazil as an example, forecasts based on historical data show that Internet demand will reach 149.8 kbps per person by 2022 [2]. However, research also shows that forecasting models based on historical data distort long-term Internet demand results [31].…”

“…Studies reveal that Internet-based services will face a very challenging scenario [1]. First, because Internet demand is growing driven by increasing customer numbers [2], by the emergence of new technologies [3][4][5], and by applications of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Smart Cities (SC) systems [6]. Second, because Internet networks are unable to serve new customers due to technological limitations [7,8], approach their physical limitations [9,10].…”

“…More than two distinct challenges, the opposite direction between declining network capacity and growing Internet demand [11] signals that the scenario ahead calls for an urgent solution: expanding (current or new) Internet networks. Considering that network planning is part of this solution, network planners play a relevant role in this context [2,7,[12][13][14].…”

“…With this possibility, network planners can: (I) expand the network by laying cables to serve new customers as these customers arise [2,6]; or (II) oversize the network, leaving enough cables to serve new customers coming in the future [1]. With these alternatives, the question arises: which of these two strategies is most advantageous?…”

“…The following is the case study in which, cable networks are designed for planning strategies to expand and oversize. These network designs are based on future Internet demand, forecasted from economic and technological variables, the market conditions (distribution and population concentration) [2], and on applying the Dijkstra [19] and Steiner tree [20] algorithms.…”