Different responses of weather factors on hand, foot and mouth disease in three different climate areas of Gansu, China

Gou, Faxiang; Liu, Xinfeng; He, Jian; Liu, Dongpeng; Cheng, Yao; Liu, Haixia; Yang, Xiaoting; Wei, Kongfu; Zheng, Yan; Jiang, Xiaojuan; Meng, Lu

doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2860-4

Cited by 26 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…These results indicated that the transmissibility of HFMD is lower than influenza. Commonly, the reproduction number of influenza was 1.4-2.0 [17], and was 1.81 in Changsha City [18]. Therefore, the results of our study are reliable.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Interaction analysis on transmissibility of main pathogens of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xi’an: a modelling study

Bai

Liu

Shao

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Objectives: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely and led to high disease burden in many countries, but the interaction among the pathogens of the disease remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to analyze the interaction of the main pathogens of HFMD using a mathematical model. Method: A dataset on reported HFMD cases was collected in Xi’an City. A long-term etiological surveillance was conducted focusing on the pathogens of the disease including Enterovirus A71 (EV71), Coxsachievirus A16 (CoxA16), and other enteroviruses. A susceptible–infectious–recovered model was adopted to calculate the reproduction number during the ascending period of reported cases (defined as Rasc) and the descending period (defined as Rdes). Results: In Xi’an, Rasc and Rdes of HFMD was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.31 – 1.48) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.65 – 0.74), respectively. CoxA16 and other enteroviruses interacted with each other and decreased the value of Rasc. However, Rdes of CoxA16 was increased by other enteroviruses directionally.However, during the reported cases decreasing period, interactions only occurred between EV71 and other enteroviruses and between CoxA16 and other enteroviruses. These interactions all decreased Rasc but increased Rdes of affected pathogens. Conclusions: The interaction of the pathogens exists in Xi’an City. The reproduction number of the affected pathogen is adjusted and verges to 1 by the interaction.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Interaction analysis on transmissibility of main pathogens of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xi’an: a modelling study

Bai

Liu

Shao

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…To date (May 2019), only one relevant paper was retrieved by searching "hfmd arid semi-arid" on Pubmed. Similar to other studies, the retrieved paper found that weather factor such as average temperature and relative humidity have significant effect on HFMD [21]. In general, the study on HFMD in arid and semi-arid regions is still limited, more research in such climates would potentially make the mechanism of HFMD transmission clearer under different climate conditions.…”

supporting

confidence: 79%

“…The results in this paper showed that with a 1°C increase in temperature, HFMD incidence increased by 9.21%. While in Gansu province with similar climate conditions, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in HFMD increase of only 1.8% [21]. This discrepancy indicates that other factors, regardless of climate or socioeconomic, may have played a part in determining the final outcome of HFMD incidence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of hand, foot and mouth disease and impact of meteorological factors in arid/ semi-arid regions: a case study in Ningxia, China

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2019

BMC Public Health

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Background: The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) varies over space and time and this variability is related to climate and social-economic factors. Majority of studies on HFMD were carried out in humid regions while few have focused on the disease in arid/semi-arid regions, more research in such climates would potentially make the mechanism of HFMD transmission clearer under different climate conditions. Methods: In this paper, we explore spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD in Ningxia province, which has an arid/semiarid climate in northwest China. We first employed a Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) to assess the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of the HFMD cases and its relationship with meteorological factors in Ningxia from 2009 to 2013, then used a novel spatial statistical software package GeoDetector to test the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD risk. Results: The results showed that the spatial relative risks in northern part of Ningxia were higher than those in the south. The highest temporal risk of HFMD incidence was in fall season, with a secondary peak in spring. Meteorological factors, such as average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed played significant roles in the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD risk. Conclusions:The study provide valuable information on HFMD distribution in arid/semi-arid areas in northwest China and facilitate understanding of the concentration of HFMD.

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“…However, a study of HFMD in Gansu, China, showed that the HFMD reached the peak in June [35]. The climate of the two places mentioned above differs markedly.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-temporal mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease in relation to climate factors in Xinjiang, China from 2008 to 2016

Xie

Huang

Wang

et al. 2020

Preprint

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[Objectives]: The study mainly aims to depict the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Xinjiang, China and to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD and the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD in Xinjiang under the influence of meteorological factors.[Methods]: With the data from the national surveillance data of HFMD and meteorological parameters in the study area from 2008 to 2016. We first employed GeoDetector Model to examine the effects of meteorological factors on HFMD incidence in Xinjiang, China and to test the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD risk, and then the spatial autocorrelation was applied to examine the temporal-spatial pattern of HFMD.[Results]: From 2008 to 2016, the HFMD distribution showed a distinct seasonal pattern and HFMD cases typically occurred between May and July, peaking in June, in Xinjiang. The relative humidity, precipitation, air pressure and temperature had more influence than other risk factors on HFMD incidence with explanatory powers of 0.30, 0.29, 0.29 and 0.21(p<0.000), respectively. The interactive effect of any two risk factors would enhance the risk of HFMD and there was a nonlinear enhancement between any two risk factors interactive effect. The spatial relative risks in Northern Xinjiang were higher than in Southern Xinjiang. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed a fluctuating trend over the years, the spatial dependency on the incidence of HFMD in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2015, the negative spatial autocorrelation in 2009 and a random distribution pattern in 2011, 2013 and 2016.[Conclusion]: Our findings show that the risk of HFMD in Xinjiang showed signiﬁcant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The monthly average relative humidity, monthly average precipitation, monthly average air pressure and monthly average temperature factors might have stronger relationships on the HFMD incidence in Xinjiang, China, compared with other factors. The differences in climate and latitude between Southern and Northern Xinjiang and their arid and semi-arid geographical environment are part of the reasons why the distribution of HFMD in Xinjiang is different from other temperate continental climatic zones. These associations draw attention to climate-related health issues and will help in establishing accurate spatiotemporal prevention of HFMD in Xinjiang, China.

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Different responses of weather factors on hand, foot and mouth disease in three different climate areas of Gansu, China

Cited by 26 publications

References 37 publications

Interaction analysis on transmissibility of main pathogens of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xi’an: a modelling study

Interaction analysis on transmissibility of main pathogens of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xi’an: a modelling study

Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of hand, foot and mouth disease and impact of meteorological factors in arid/ semi-arid regions: a case study in Ningxia, China

Spatial-temporal mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease in relation to climate factors in Xinjiang, China from 2008 to 2016

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