The study aims to depict the temporal and spatial distributions of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in Xinjiang, China and reveal the relationships between the incidence of HFMD and meteorological factors in Xinjiang. With the national surveillance data of HFMD in Xinjiang and meteorological parameters in the study area from 2008 to 2016, in GeoDetector Model, we examined the effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD in Xinjiang, China, tested the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD risk, and explored the temporal-spatial patterns of HFMD through the spatial autocorrelation analysis. From 2008 to 2016, the HFMD distribution showed a distinct seasonal pattern and HFMD cases typically occurred from May to July and peaked in June in Xinjiang. Relative humidity, precipitation, barometric pressure and temperature had the more significant influences on the incidence of HFMD than other meteorological factors with the explanatory power of 0.30, 0.29, 0.29 and 0.21 (P<0.000). The interaction between any two meteorological factors had a nonlinear enhancement effect on the risk of HFMD. The relative risk in Northern Xinjiang was higher than that in Southern Xinjiang. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis results indicated a fluctuating trend over these years: the positive spatial dependency on the incidence of HFMD in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2015, the negative spatial autocorrelation in 2009 and a random distribution pattern in 2011, 2013 and 2016. Our findings revealed the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD in Xinjiang. The correlation showed obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The study provides the basis for the government to control HFMD based on meteorological information. The risk of HFMD can be predicted with appropriate meteorological factors for HFMD prevention and control.
Background: As the global climate changes, the number of cases of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is increasing year by year. This study comprehensively considers the association of time and space by analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution changes of HFMD in the Ili River Valley in terms of what climate factors could affect HFMD and in what way. Methods: HFMD cases were obtained from the National Public Health Science Data Center from 2013 to 2018. Monthly climate data, including average temperature (MAT), average relative humidity (MARH), average wind speed (MAWS), cumulative precipitation (MCP), and average air pressure (MAAP), were obtained from the National Meteorological Information Center. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of HFMD from 2013 to 2018 were obtained using kernel density estimation (KDE) and spatiotemporal scan statistics. A regression model of the incidence of HFMD and climate factors was established based on a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model and a generalized additive model (GAM). Results: The KDE results show that the highest density was from north to south of the central region, gradually spreading to the whole region throughout the study period. Spatiotemporal cluster analysis revealed that clusters were distributed along the Ili and Gongnaisi river basins. The fitted curves of MAT and MARH were an inverted V-shape from February to August, and the fitted curves of MAAP and MAWS showed a U-shaped change and negative correlation from February to May. Among the individual climate factors, MCP coefficient values varied the most while MAWS values varied less from place to place. There was a partial similarity in the spatial distribution of coefficients for MARH and MAT, as evidenced by a significant degree of fit performance in the whole region. MCP showed a significant positive correlation in the range of 15–35 mm, and MAAP showed a positive correlation in the range of 925–945 hPa. HFMD incidence increased with MAT in the range of 15–23 °C, and the effective value of MAWS was in the range of 1.3–1.7 m/s, which was positively correlated with incidences of HFMD. Conclusions: HFMD incidence and climate factors were found to be spatiotemporally associated, and climate factors are mostly non-linearly associated with HFMD incidence.
The sustainable development of ecological environments is the basis of the sustainable development of inland river basins in arid areas with fragile ecological environments. The aim of our study is to diagnose the ecological problems of the Aksu River basin (ARB) and explore the ecological security pattern (ESP) and the layout and implementation path of ecological protection projects for mountains, rivers, forests, farmland, lakes, grasslands and deserts (MRFFLGD) in arid areas under different security levels. The Aksu River, the largest source of the Tarim River, was selected as the case study. The equivalent factor evaluation method (EFEM) was used to estimate the ecological service value (ESV), and the InVEST model was employed to quantify the ecological function indicators. By constructing the richness index, the ESV of the study area was measured spatially, and the ecological problems in the ARB were identified and diagnosed. Using cold/hot spot detection analysis and the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model, the ESPs at three security levels were constructed. The layout of ecological protection measures and the implementation path for MRFFLGD were studied. The results showed that the ESV of ARB showed an upwards trend from 1990 to 2018, and the three services of water conservation, waste treatment and soil formation and retention grew fastest. The value of ecosystem services in the study area in 2018 ranged from 5,390 yuan to 131,080 yuan/hm2. The high-value areas were mainly located in the oasis and the northern mountainous area, and the low-value areas were mainly located in the desert area. The ecological source areas of high, medium and low safety levels were 1806.3 km2, 3416.8 km2 and 4804.32 km2, respectively. Based on the spatial distribution of ESV in the ARB and the preliminary diagnosis of the basic ecological problems in the study area, three kinds of ecological protection engineering models, namely, conservation, natural restoration and assisted regeneration, were proposed for the four types of ecological protection zones. To provide a decision-making basis for ecological environmental management and regional sustainable development in the ARB, the optimization patterns of points (6 key ecological protection projects), lines (ecological corridors) and polygons (ecological source areas) were constructed. The results of this study can also serve as a reference for ecological environmental protection in other arid inland river basins.
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