Different climate response persistence causes warming trend unevenness at continental scales

Li, Qingxiang; Sheng, Bosi; Huang, Jiaying; Li, Chao; Song, Zhaoyang; Chao, Liya; Sun, Wanning; Yang, Yang; Jiao, Boyang; Guo, Ziyou; Liao, Longshi; Li, Xuqian; Sun, Chenglong; Li, Wen; Huang, Boyin; Dong, Wenjie; Jones, Phil

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01313-9

Cited by 29 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…In addition, the benefits between 1.5°C , 2°C, and 3°C warming periods are also slightly larger under SSP245 than under SSP585 scenario. These differences may be related to the nonlinear response of extreme temperatures and differences in regional aerosol forcings between SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios (Caesar et al., 2013; Li et al., 2022; Lin et al., 2018). These comparisons further indicate the effectiveness and urgency of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, or at least no more than 2°C.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Will the Unprecedented 2022 Summer Heat Waves in Yangtze River Basin Become Normal in a Warming Climate?

Yuan

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Yangtze River basin (YZB) experienced record‐breaking heat in the summer of 2022. Here, we focused on daytime‐nighttime compound heat waves, and used the magnitude index that considers both duration and intensity to investigate the risk of the 2022 extreme heat. The magnitude of heatwaves in 2022 was much larger than the historical average level, which was estimated as a 1‐in‐64‐year event over 1979–2014 climate. Without mitigation efforts (SSP585), the record‐breaking heat would emerge as normal during 2050s, and would affect ∼70% of land and projected population in the basin before global mean temperature change reaches 3°C. Such an emergence could be progressively delayed and impacts could be reduced under lower warming levels. The affected area would be 60% lesser at 2°C warming, and the emergence could be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5°C. Our results call for urgent mitigation efforts for reducing the risk of compound heat extremes.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Will the Unprecedented 2022 Summer Heat Waves in Yangtze River Basin Become Normal in a Warming Climate?

Yuan

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The regression analysis is performed using the standardized DMI in this study. The correlation function describes the lag correlation between two index which including direct and indirect dependence information, while the partial correlation function only describes the direct relationship in contrast (Li, Sheng, et al., 2022). The indirect effects needs to be considered when used lagged correlation function in this article, so we chose the correlation function instead of the partial correlation function.…”

Section: Data Sets and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strengthened Impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole on the Yangtze Precipitation Contribute to the Extreme Rainfall of 2020 Meiyu Season

Wang

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

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During summer 2020, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (Middle and Lower Yangtze River Region (MLYR)) in the southern China suffered from unprecedented heavy Meiyu precipitation and catastrophic flooding (Wei et al., 2020). According to China's National Climate Center, 759.2 mm of rain fell this year, second only to the 789.3 mm recorded in 1954 and 1.2 times more than the average of the normal years (343.4 mm) (Ding et al., 2021). It is the highest recorded Meiyu precipitation since 1961, exceeding the same period in 1998. At the same time, the duration of 2020 Meiyu season was 62, 22 days longer than that of the normal (40 days), which is the longest since 1961, tied with 2015. The floods affected 63.46 million people and caused direct economic losses of 178.96 billion RMB. In that flood disaster, 54,000 houses collapsed and 219 people were killed or missing (

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“…Using linear regression analyses, the temperature increase in NEU is found to be the strongest during the recent four decades (1980–2021, 0.46°C/10 yrs), while in WNA and CNA the warming trends are much weaker (0.23°C/10 yrs and 0.22°C/10 yrs, respectively). The huge regional difference indicates that global warming is unevenly distributed in the world (see also Li et al., 2022), but the question is how much of the regional difference is contributed by anthropogenic forcings, and how much can be attributed to natural causes.…”

Section: Anthropogenic and Natural Trends In Temperature Recordsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Separating Anthropogenically‐ and Naturally‐Caused Temperature Trends: A Systematic Approach Based On Climate Memory Analysis

Yuan

Franzke

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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It has been well recognized that the observed temperature changes consist of effects from anthropogenic forcings (e.g., greenhouse gases, land-use change), natural forcings (e.g., volcanic eruptions, solar activity), and internal natural variabilities (Eyring et al., 2021), but separating their contributions is challenging. Straightforwardly, one may achieve this by comparing observations with model simulations under different forcings, but this is limited by the ability of current coupled models in capturing the internal natural variability of the climate system (Fyfe et al., 2013). For example, many models missed the simulation of the recent global warming hiatus (GWH) from 1998 to 2012 (Papalexiou et al., 2020). In recent years, great efforts have been made in Detection and Attribution studies, and a sophisticated way is to carry out generalized linear regressions of model simulations against observational data, that is, the optimal fingerprinting (OFP) method (Allen & Tett, 1999;Hasselmann, 1997). The OFP method is able to distinguish the contributions of different factors on observed climate changes, but model simulations usually require massive computing resources and have uncertainties particularly on regional scales (Bindoff et al., 2013). To meet the demands of Detection and Attribution science, statistical approaches based solely on

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Different climate response persistence causes warming trend unevenness at continental scales

Cited by 29 publications

References 69 publications

When Will the Unprecedented 2022 Summer Heat Waves in Yangtze River Basin Become Normal in a Warming Climate?

When Will the Unprecedented 2022 Summer Heat Waves in Yangtze River Basin Become Normal in a Warming Climate?

Strengthened Impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole on the Yangtze Precipitation Contribute to the Extreme Rainfall of 2020 Meiyu Season

Separating Anthropogenically‐ and Naturally‐Caused Temperature Trends: A Systematic Approach Based On Climate Memory Analysis

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