Development of Seismic Vulnerability and Exposure Models—A Case Study of Croatia

Pavić, Gordana; Hadzima-Nyarko, Marijana; Bulajić, Borko Đ.; Jurković, Željka

doi:10.3390/su12030973

Cited by 25 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(56 reference statements)

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“…Every building class within a given risk-oriented taxonomy can be disaggregated into attributes within a faceted taxonomy. This has been described in Pittore et al (2018) and has been noted in Pavić et al (2020).…”

Section: Faceted Taxonomies: Taxonomic Attributesmentioning

confidence: 72%

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Zapata

Pittore

Cotton

et al. 2022

Bull Earthquake Eng

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In seismic risk assessment, the sources of uncertainty associated with building exposure modelling have not received as much attention as other components related to hazard and vulnerability. Conventional practices such as assuming absolute portfolio compositions (i.e., proportions per building class) from expert-based assumptions over aggregated data crudely disregard the contribution of uncertainty of the exposure upon earthquake loss models. In this work, we introduce the concept that the degree of knowledge of a building stock can be described within a Bayesian probabilistic approach that integrates both expert-based prior distributions and data collection on individual buildings. We investigate the impact of the epistemic uncertainty in the portfolio composition on scenario-based earthquake loss models through an exposure-oriented logic tree arrangement based on synthetic building portfolios. For illustrative purposes, we consider the residential building stock of Valparaíso (Chile) subjected to seismic ground-shaking from one subduction earthquake. We have found that building class reconnaissance, either from prior assumptions by desktop studies with aggregated data (top–down approach), or from building-by-building data collection (bottom–up approach), plays a fundamental role in the statistical modelling of exposure. To model the vulnerability of such a heterogeneous building stock, we require that their associated set of structural fragility functions handle multiple spectral periods. Thereby, we also discuss the relevance and specific uncertainty upon generating either uncorrelated or spatially cross-correlated ground motion fields within this framework. We successively show how various epistemic uncertainties embedded within these probabilistic exposure models are differently propagated throughout the computed direct financial losses. This work calls for further efforts to redesign desktop exposure studies, while also highlighting the importance of exposure data collection with standardized and iterative approaches.

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Section: Faceted Taxonomies: Taxonomic Attributesmentioning

confidence: 72%

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Zapata

Pittore

Cotton

et al. 2022

Bull Earthquake Eng

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“…GEM v.2.0, Brzev et al 2013). This has been described in Pittore et al (2018) and has been also noticed in Pavić et al (2020). Some of the most common risk-oriented taxonomies include: European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98, Grünthal, 1998); HAZUS (FEMA, 2003); PAGER-STR (Jaiswal et al 2010).…”

Section: Current State Of the Art In Building-exposure Modelling For mentioning

confidence: 87%

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Zapata¹,

Pittore²,

Cotton³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In seismic risk assessment the sources of uncertainty associated to building exposure modelling have not received as much attention as other components related to hazard and vulnerability. We are introducing that the degree of knowledge of a building portfolio can be described within a Bayesian probabilistic approach to acknowledge the epistemic uncertainty of its composition (i.e. proportions per building class). We are investigating the impact of such uncertainty on earthquake loss models through a novel approach based on an exposure-oriented logic tree arrangement and scenario-based seismic risk simulations. We have found that the building class reconnaissance either from prior assumptions by desktop studies with aggregated data (top-down approach) or from building-by-building data collection (bottom-up approach), plays a fundamental role in statistical modelling of exposure. We successively show that the selection of the basic set of building classes is a major contribution to the uncertainties in the loss estimations given their dependence on specific fragility functions. If the set of fragility functions handle multiple spectral periods, cross-correlated ground motion fields are required for the vulnerability assessment which ultimately control the variability of the losses. When the exposure composition is poorly known due to, for instance, simplifications and assumptions over aggregated data, its absolute contribution to the loss uncertainties has been found to be larger than the one imposed by the spatially distributed cross-correlated ground motion fields. This work invites to redesign desktop exposure studies, while it also highlights the importance of a standardized iterative approach to exposure data collection and modelling.

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“…Although these URM structures may exhibit nonlinear behaviour in the post-cracking stage, their ductility is limited and the overall performance is inferior when compared to otherwise similar RC and steel structures. Research studies related to seismic risk associated with local masonry construction have been carried out in the region, including Slovenia [5,6], Croatia [7][8][9], Bosnia and Herzegovina [10,11], Northern Macedonia [12], and Montenegro [13]. Post-earthquake reconnaissance after the 2010 Kraljevo earthquake (M 5.4) confirmed seismic vulnerability of URM residential buildings in urban centres of Serbia [14].…”

Section: Billion)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Simplified Seismic Assessment of Unreinforced Masonry Residential Buildings in the Balkans: The Case of Serbia

2021

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The paper presents a study on the existing low-rise unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings constructed in the period from 1945 to 1980 in Serbia and neighbouring countries in the Balkans. Buildings of this typology experienced damage in a few earthquakes in the region, including the 2010 Kraljevo, Serbia earthquake and the 2020 Petrinja, Croatia earthquake. The focus of the study is a seismic design approach for Simple masonry buildings according to Eurocode 8, Part 1, which is based on the minimum requirements for the total wall area relative to the floor plan area, which is referred to as Wall Index (WI) in this paper. Although the intention of Eurocode 8 is to use WI for design of new buildings, the authors believe that it could be also used for seismic assessment of existing masonry buildings in pre- and post-earthquake situations. A study on 23 URM buildings damaged in the 2010 Kraljevo, Serbia earthquake has been presented to examine a relationship between the WI and the extent of earthquake damage. Seismic evaluation of a typical 3-storey URM building damaged in the 2010 earthquake was performed according to the requirements of seismic design codes from the former Yugoslavia and Eurocode 8.

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Development of Seismic Vulnerability and Exposure Models—A Case Study of Croatia

Cited by 25 publications

References 39 publications

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Simplified Seismic Assessment of Unreinforced Masonry Residential Buildings in the Balkans: The Case of Serbia

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