Development of sampling downscaling: a case for wintertime precipitation in Hokkaido

Tominaga

Katsuyama

et al. 2016

SOLA

Self Cite

A future change in the soil-frost depth in eastern Hokkaido was assessed with multiple local climate scenarios. The biascorrected downscaled data with an aid of a simple snow-depth model were applied to the empirical estimation from cumulative freezing degree-days (CFD) for days when the snow depth is less than 20 cm. Consequently, as the response to global warming climate that was defined as +2-K world in this paper, the maximum soil-frost depth significantly decreased in the coastal regions along the Pacific and in central Tokachi subprefecture with a slight variation among climate scenarios. Parameter-sweep experiments for two observed cases clarified that the temperature increase would bring the soil warming in the environment where the insulation effect of snow cover does not work at present, while it would bring the soil frosting in the environment where the insulation effect works.(Citation: Inatsu, M., J. Tominaga, Y. Katsuyama, and T. Hirota, 2016: Soil-frost depth change in eastern Hokkaido under +2 K-world climate scenarios. SOLA, 12, 153−158,

Section: Multiple Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 98%

Soil-Frost Depth Change in Eastern Hokkaido under +2 K-World Climate Scenarios

Tominaga

Katsuyama

et al. 2016

SOLA

Self Cite

“…These three GCMs can reproduce the present climate over Japan in summer (Inatsu et al 2015). Following Kuno and Inatsu (2014), we selected the last decade of the 20th century experiment called 20C3M in CMIP3 as the current climate.…”

Section: Gcmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example summertime rainfall in Hokkaido is possibly related to local-scale phenomena such as topographic rainfall, cumulus cloud convection, and small-scale rainband. Hence, a study extending Kuno and Inatsu (2014) to boreal summer deserves our attention to ascertain the applicability of SmDS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The purpose of this study is (1) to apply SmDS to summertime precipitation over Hokkaido as another case study from Kuno and Inatsu (2014) and (2) to estimate the error in SmDS with statistical consideration. For the first purpose, we compare SmDS for four years with DDS for 30 years (hereafter full DDS) in terms of the daily-mean precipitation, the standard deviation of June-July-August (JJA) mean precipitation, and the 99-percentile value of daily precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, Kuno and Inatsu (2014) proposed the sampling downscaling (SmDS), in which the DDS is performed for a few years based on the statistical relation between a synoptic climate pattern and a local precipitation amount. On the basis of a robust observed linkage between winter Asian monsoon and regional snowfall in Hokkaido, they showed that SmDS actually provided a similar result to conventional DDS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Sampling Downscaling in Summertime Precipitation over Hokkaido

Tamaki

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

Kuno

et al. 2016

Self Cite

The sampling downscaling (SmDS) in which a regional atmospheric model is integrated for sampled periods was performed for summertime Hokkaido. Selected are top two and bottom two years of the general circulation model projection onto the first singular value decomposition mode where heavy precipitation in southern Hokkaido is correlated with the moisture flux convergence in the synoptic field. The SmDS result integrated for the four years successfully reproduces the dynamical downscaling for 30 years, in terms of climatological precipitation and the 99-percentile value of daily precipitation. This indicates that SmDS can be applied to the environment where local precipitation is mostly controlled by synoptic climate patterns. A further statistical consideration in this study supports the notion. It is also demonstrated that SmDS selects a group of years where extreme events likely occur another group of years where they rarely occur.

Multi‐GCM by multi‐RAM experiments for dynamical downscaling on summertime climate change in Hokkaido

Atmospheric Science Letters

Sato

Yamada

et al. 2015

Self Cite

The experiments with three general circulation models (GCMs) by three regional atmospheric models (RAMs) for the dynamical downscaling (DDS) have been performed to evaluate the uncertainty in the global warming response during summertime in Hokkaido, Japan. The results of a 10-year RAM integration nested into GCM under present or future climate conditions were synthesized after applying bias correction. For the target decades during which the global-mean temperature increases by 2 K in each GCM, the DDS results indicate that surface air temperature and precipitation mostly depend on the GCM imposed as the lateral boundary condition.