Multi‐<scp>GCM</scp> by multi‐<scp>RAM</scp> experiments for dynamical downscaling on summertime climate change in Hokkaido

Inatsu, Masaru; Sato, Toru; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Kuno, Ryusuke; Sugimoto, Shiori; Farukh, MA; Pokhrel, Yadu; Kure, Shuichi

doi:10.1002/asl2.557

Cited by 25 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Since the future projections using global and regional climate models would have large uncertainties (Inatsu et al 2015), multiple dynamical downscalings from several global climate simulations are important. The changes in global-scale SST patterns have various impacts on the mid-and high-latitude atmospheres, such as monsoons and extratropical cyclones (Mizuta et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Winter Precipitation around Japan Projected by Ensemble Experiments Using NHRCM

Kawase

Sasaki

Murata

et al. 2015

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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We investigate future changes in winter precipitation around Japan and their uncertainties using the downscalings of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with 20-km grid spacing according to global climate projections. The global climate projections were conducted by the atmospheric general circulation model with three patterns of sea surface temperature changes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Moreover, three cumulus convective parameterizations were applied in the present and future climate experiments. The ensemble mean of nine future NHRCM experiments shows decreases in the winter precipitation on the coast of the Sea of Japan and over the Pacific Ocean in the south of the Japanese archipelago. The former decrease in precipitation results from a weakened winter monsoon. The latter corresponds to changes in extratropical cyclone number around Japan, which have a large uncertainty. On the other hand, winter precipitation increases over the northernmost part of Japan (Hokkaido) and the northeastern Asian continent. The strengthened northwesterly around Hokkaido, which results from the reduction of sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk, causes increased precipitation in the inland area of Hokkaido. In addition, moistening due to global warming relates to increased precipitation in extremely cold regions. These signals are common to most experiments.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Winter Precipitation around Japan Projected by Ensemble Experiments Using NHRCM

Kawase

Sasaki

Murata

et al. 2015

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…As mentioned in Section 1 and Inatsu et al (2015), the DDS result is strongly influenced by the GCM boundary condition. Compared to the DDS result with the observed data, we found that the model climatology overestimated both the daily-mean precipitation and 99-percentile value (Figs.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is likely that this overestimation is because of the bias of GCM. In climate modeling community, the ensemble mean is often used for DDS experiment (e.g., Kendon et al 2010;Donat et al 2011;Inatsu et al 2015) because the ensemble mean possibly provides the most optimal estimation than any other individual model mean (Pierce et al 2009). However the DDS experiment using multi-GCM requires much more computational costs.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2b) that blocks a warm, moist air mass from the southwest due to the summertime Asian monsoon (cf. Inatsu et al 2015). The standard deviation of JJA-mean precipitation shows less than 2 mm day −1 in almost all Hokkaido except for the part of the Hidaka and Iburi subprefectures (Fig.…”

Section: Error Estimation Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…GCMs we used are the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2 (hereafter MIROC) developed by the University of Tokyo (Hasumi and Emori 2004); the fifth generation atmospheric GCM in Max Plank Institute for meteorology (hereafter MPI; Roeckner et al 2003); and Community Climate System Model version 3 in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (hereafter NCAR; Collins et al 2006). These three GCMs can reproduce the present climate over Japan in summer (Inatsu et al 2015). Following Kuno and Inatsu (2014), we selected the last decade of the 20th century experiment called 20C3M in CMIP3 as the current climate.…”

Section: Gcmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sampling Downscaling in Summertime Precipitation over Hokkaido

Tamaki

Inatsu

Kuno

et al. 2016

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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The sampling downscaling (SmDS) in which a regional atmospheric model is integrated for sampled periods was performed for summertime Hokkaido. Selected are top two and bottom two years of the general circulation model projection onto the first singular value decomposition mode where heavy precipitation in southern Hokkaido is correlated with the moisture flux convergence in the synoptic field. The SmDS result integrated for the four years successfully reproduces the dynamical downscaling for 30 years, in terms of climatological precipitation and the 99-percentile value of daily precipitation. This indicates that SmDS can be applied to the environment where local precipitation is mostly controlled by synoptic climate patterns. A further statistical consideration in this study supports the notion. It is also demonstrated that SmDS selects a group of years where extreme events likely occur another group of years where they rarely occur.

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Using a massive high‐resolution ensemble climate data set to examine dynamic and thermodynamic aspects of heavy precipitation change

Yamada

Hoshino

Suzuki

2021

Atmospheric Science Letters

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This study investigated the relationship between extreme precipitation and near-surface temperature (precipitation-temperature relation) from two different perspectives, the rate of change of precipitation with temperature and dynamic (i.e., effect of the change in atmospheric motion) and thermodynamic (i.e., effect of the change in atmospheric moisture content) aspects, using a 5-km dynamical downscaled hundreds-year data set for past climate condition (PAST; from 1951 to 2010) and future climate condition (FUTURE; 4 C warmer than the preindustrial condition). Initially, using the observation and the PAST and FUTURE data sets, it was found that the 99th and 99.9th percentile hourly precipitation for each temperature bin (P 99 and P 99.9 , respectively) paralleled the slope of the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation for a certain temperature range over the Tokachi River basin in Hokkaido, the northern island of Japan; however, both P 99 and P 99.9 decreased in the hightemperature range. Next, we examined the cause of the P 99 and P 99.9 differences between PAST and FUTURE for each temperature bin by classifying dynamic and thermodynamic factors. The result showed that the thermodynamic effect dominates the differences in P 99 and P 99.9 between PAST and FUTURE, which means that the thermodynamic effect is the main component of the precipitation-temperature relation. Similar analyses were applied to the whole river basin, including the mountainous area. The results showed that the differences in P 99 and P 99.9 between PAST and FUTURE are mainly due to the thermodynamic contribution, regardless of plain or mountain area. Using such large model data sets, we could make a robust assessment of the precipitation-temperature relation and the dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to precipitation changes. Moreover, using the 5-km resolution hundreds-year data set enabled us to quantify the spatial distribution of such precipitation characteristics over a thousands of square kilometer catchment.

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Multi‐GCM by multi‐RAM experiments for dynamical downscaling on summertime climate change in Hokkaido

Cited by 25 publications

References 21 publications

Future Changes in Winter Precipitation around Japan Projected by Ensemble Experiments Using NHRCM

Future Changes in Winter Precipitation around Japan Projected by Ensemble Experiments Using NHRCM

Sampling Downscaling in Summertime Precipitation over Hokkaido

Using a massive high‐resolution ensemble climate data set to examine dynamic and thermodynamic aspects of heavy precipitation change

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