Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

Abstract

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate change. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or impact of that event. In the context of species habitats, the likelihood component is related to the potential changes in suitable habitat modeled at various times during this century. Consequences are related to the adaptability of the species to cope with the changes, especially the increasing intensity and/or frequency of disturbance events that are projected. We derived consequence scores from nine biological and 12 disturbance characteristics that were pulled from literature for each species. All data were generated from an atlas of climate change for 134 trees of the eastern United States (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas). We show examples which depict a wide range of risk for tree species of northern Wisconsin, including species that may gain substantial habitat as well as lose substantial habitat, both of which will require the development of strategies to help the ecosystems adapt to such changes.

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

“…As one example of the potential application of this approach, Tree Atlas results for northern Wisconsin (Swanston et al 2011) were translated into a risk matrix for three future periods: 2010 to 2040, 2040 to 2070, and 2070 to 2100 (Iverson et al 2012a(Iverson et al , 2012b (Fig. 36).…”

“…The magnitude of consequence was inversely related to the adaptability of the species . to climate change based upon the modifying factors; thus, the lower the capacity to cope, the greater the risk for habitat loss and the greater the consequences from climate change (Iverson et al 2012a(Iverson et al , 2012b. To assess changes in consequence over time, adaptability scores were adjusted to account for projected increases in disturbance over time (Iverson et al 2012b).…”

A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States

“…The exact metrics used to assess risk vary based on available data and information deemed important by stakeholders [19]. These metrics can be organized using a matrix where the magnitude of consequences is plotted against the relative likelihood of the event occurring [20]. Within the matrix, a series of grids can be developed to represent functional levels of risk which translate into monitoring strategies aimed at managing the risk [21], [22].…”

“…Within the matrix, a series of grids can be developed to represent functional levels of risk which translate into monitoring strategies aimed at managing the risk [21], [22]. This approach has been adopted by Iverson et al [20] to evaluate the risk of CC on forested habitats. The creation of the risk matrices was not intended for use in decision making; rather the matrices were designed to focus the evaluation of risk in terms of likelihood and consequence [21], [22].…”

“…The creation of the risk matrices was not intended for use in decision making; rather the matrices were designed to focus the evaluation of risk in terms of likelihood and consequence [21], [22]. Although Iverson et al's [20] focus was on risk of habitat change for tree species, the opportunity exists to extend the methodology to other forest ecosystem attributes and services (e.g., water or C). In the context of CC and forest C dynamics, risk may be conceptualized as the magnitude of C stock change due to CC and/or CC-induced natural disturbances multiplied by the associated probability that C stocks might change due to said events.…”