Development of a risk prediction score for hypertension incidence using Japanese health checkup data

Kawasoe, Mariko; Kawasoe, Shin; Kubozono, Takuro; Ojima, Satoko; Kawabata, Takeko; Ikeda, Yoshiyuki; Oketani, Naoya; Miyahara, Hirofumi; Tokushige, Koichi; Miyata, Masaaki; Ohishi, Mitsuru

doi:10.1038/s41440-021-00831-x

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The primary model was adjusted to obtain significant risk factors associated with MetS and used to create a risk score for estimating the 5-year incidence of MetS. We assigned each category of risk factor corresponding to the β coefficients of multivariate logistic regression, in accordance with the methods used in previous investigations of risk score, including the Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study group: 1, β = 0.01-0.20; 2, β = 0.21-0.80; 3, β = 0.81-1.20; 4, β = 1.21-2.20; and 5, β > 2.20 [29,30]. The reference category for each risk factor was assigned a score of 0.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of predictive equation and score for 5-year metabolic syndrome incidence in Japanese adults

et al. 2023

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Background Predicting metabolic syndrome (MetS) is important for identifying high-risk cardiovascular disease individuals and providing preventive interventions. We aimed to develop and validate an equation and a simple MetS score according to the Japanese MetS criteria. Methods In total, 54,198 participants (age, 54.5±10.1 years; men, 46.0%), with baseline and 5-year follow-up data were randomly assigned to ‘Derivation’ and ‘Validation’ cohorts (ratio: 2:1). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed in derivation cohort and scores were assigned to factors corresponding to β-coefficients. We evaluated predictive ability of the scores using area under the curve (AUC), then applied them to validation cohort to assess reproducibility. Results The primary model ranged 0–27 points had an AUC of 0.81 (sensitivity: 0.81, specificity: 0.81, cut-off score: 14), and consisted of age, sex, blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), serum lipids, glucose measurements, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. The simplified model (excluding blood tests) ranged 0–17 points with an AUC of 0.78 (sensitivity: 0.83, specificity: 0.77, cut-off score: 15) and included: age, sex, systolic BP, diastolic BP, BMI, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. We classified individuals with a score <15 and ≥15 points as low- and high-risk MetS, respectively. Furthermore, the equation model generated an AUC of 0.85 (sensitivity: 0.86, specificity: 0.55). Analysis of the validation and derivation cohorts yielded similar results. Conclusion We developed a primary score, an equation model, and a simple score. The simple score is convenient, well-validated with acceptable discrimination, and could be used for early detection of MetS in high-risk individuals.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of predictive equation and score for 5-year metabolic syndrome incidence in Japanese adults

et al. 2023

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“…This study was conducted in the same population as the participants for whom we previously created a risk model for developing hypertension 12 . Data were collected from participants aged 30–69 years after annual health checkups at Kagoshima Kouseiren Hospital between April 2008 and March 2016.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As in our previous risk model for developing hypertension, we used a similar analytical method 12 . Continuous variables (age, BMI, blood pressure, and hematological parameters) are expressed as mean ± standard deviation, except for skewed distributed indices including triglyceride and blood glucose levels, which are expressed as median (1st quartile, 3rd quartile).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a risk prediction score and equation for chronic kidney disease: a retrospective cohort study

Kawasoe

Kubozono

Salim

et al. 2023

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a risk factor for end-stage renal disease and contributes to increased risk of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk prediction score and equation for future CKD using health checkup data. This study included 58,423 Japanese participants aged 30–69 years, who were randomly assigned to derivation and validation cohorts at a ratio of 2:1. The predictors were anthropometric indices, life style, and blood sampling data. In derivation cohort, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis and obtained the standardized beta coefficient of each factor that was significantly associated with new-onset CKD and assigned scores to each factor. We created a score and an equation to predict CKD after 5 years and applied them to validation cohort to assess their reproducibility. The risk score ranged 0–16, consisting of age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, hyperuricemia, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 for the derivation cohort and 0.79 for the validation cohort. The CKD incidence gradually and constantly increased as the score increased from ≤ 6 to ≥ 14. The equation consisted of the seven indices described above, with AUC of 0.88 for the derivation cohort and 0.89 for the validation cohort. We developed a risk score and equation to predict CKD incidence after 5 years in Japanese population under 70 years of age. These models had reasonably high predictivity, and their reproducibility was confirmed through internal validation.

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“…Alike the Suita Study showed increased CVD mortality among smokers and the hazardous effect of smoking was augmented among those with metabolic syndrome [ 19 ]. Besides, smoking is an essential component of most Japanese CHD, stroke, atrial fibrillation (AF), and hypertension risk scores [ 20 – 27 ]. Furthermore, a recent study pooling data from 9 Japanese population-based cohort studies showed that even low-dose intensity smoking increased all-cause, cancer, and CVD mortality among men and women with a dose-response manner [ 28 ].…”

Section: Components Of Lifelong Health Support 10mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Lifelong Health Support 10: a Japanese prescription for a long and healthy life

Arafa

Kokubo

Kashima

et al. 2022

Environ. Health Prev. Med.

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Background Although the age-adjusted incidence and mortality of cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been decreasing steadily in Japan, both diseases remain major contributors to morbidity and mortality along with the aging society. Herein, we aim to provide a prescription of 10 health tips for long and healthy life named the “Lifelong Health Support 10 (LHS10).” Method The LHS10 was developed by the preventive medicine specialists at the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center in Suita, where it has been used for health guidance to prevent CVD, cancer, and cognitive decline in addition to their major risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. It consisted of the lifestyle modification recommendations of the 2014 Japanese Society of Hypertension guidelines and the 2017 Japan Atherosclerosis Society Guidelines for preventing atherosclerotic CVD. Further, it came in line with other international lifestyle modification guidelines. In this narrative review, we summarized the results of several Japanese epidemiological studies investigating the association between the LHS10 items and the risk of cancer, CVD, and other chronic diseases including dementia, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease. Results The LHS10 included avoiding smoking and secondhand smoke exposure, engaging in physical activity, refraining from excessive alcohol drinking, reducing fried foods and sugary soft drinks, cutting salt in food, consuming more vegetables, fruits, fish, soy foods, and fibers, and maintaining proper body weight. All items of the LHS10 were shown to reduce the risk of cancer, CVD, and other chronic diseases. Conclusions The LHS10 can be a helpful tool for health guidance. Supplementary information The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1265/ehpm.22-00085 .

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Development of a risk prediction score for hypertension incidence using Japanese health checkup data

Cited by 10 publications

References 45 publications

Development of predictive equation and score for 5-year metabolic syndrome incidence in Japanese adults

Development of predictive equation and score for 5-year metabolic syndrome incidence in Japanese adults

Development of a risk prediction score and equation for chronic kidney disease: a retrospective cohort study

The Lifelong Health Support 10: a Japanese prescription for a long and healthy life

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