Development of a global fire weather database for 1980–2012

Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan; Aziz, N. Adila Ab; Camia, Andrea; Cantin, Alan S.; Carr, Richard; Groot, William J. de; Dowdy, Andrew J.; Flannigan, Mike D.; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Pappenberger, Florian; Tanpipat, Veerachai; Wang, X.

doi:10.5194/nhessd-2-6555-2014

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 67 publications

(86 reference statements)

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“…Many indices of 'fire weather' or 'fire danger' have been devised and applied to observations from meteorological stations and reanalysis datasets, with each index seeking to 'rate' the combined effects of multiple weather variables on the flammability of the landscape (Jolly et al, 2015). Fire weather conceptually refers to the contemporaneous influence of temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind on vegetation dryness (Bedia et al, 2015;Field et al, 2015;Flannigan et al, 2009Flannigan et al, , 2016Jolly et al, 2015). Fire weather or fire danger rating systems predominantly rely on inputs of meteorological variables…”

Section: Indexing the Climatic Controls On Landscape Flammabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…and occasionally soil moisture to represent the contemporaneous and interacting influences of weather on vegetation flammability (Abatzoglou et al, 2018;Abatzoglou & Kolden, 2013;Bedia et al, 2015;de Groot et al, 2013;Field et al, 2015;Flannigan et al, 2005). They may also account for some lagged impacts of precipitation in recent days to weeks to inform vegetation moisture levels, although fuel (vegetation) load itself is not usually considered.…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These indices have origins in operational fire management and were typically developed by national agencies to assess daily fire risks and inform resource requirements. The Canadian FWI and its sub-components, such as its drought code or fuel moisture codes, have been employed particularly widely to study the influence of weather conditions on vegetation flammability and fire risk in many regions of the world (Abatzoglou et al, 2018;Bedia et al, 2015;Field et al, 2015;Flannigan et al, 2005Flannigan et al, , 2009Flannigan et al, , 2016. Vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is conceptually aligned with fuel moisture codes in that it focuses on the impact of atmospheric dryness on vegetation moisture levels (Williams et al, 2019).…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change

Jones

Abatzoglou

Veraverbeke

et al. 2022

Reviews of Geophysics

343

159

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Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, and perpetuating climate change. Here we review current understanding of the impacts of climate change on fire weather (weather conditions conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfires) and the consequences for regional fire activity as mediated by a range of other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity and lightning) and human factors (including ignition, suppression, and land use). Through supplemental analyses, we present a stocktake of regional trends in fire weather and burned area (BA) during recent decades, and we examine how fire activity relates to its bioclimatic and human drivers.Fire weather controls the annual timing of fires in most world regions and also drives inter-annual variability in BA in the Mediterranean, the Pacific US and high latitude forests. Increases in the frequency and extremity of fire weather have been globally pervasive due to climate change during 1979-2019, meaning that landscapes are primed to burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases in BA of ~50% or higher have been seen in some extratropical forest ecoregions including in the Pacific US and highlatitude forests during 2001-2019, though interannual variability remains large in these regions.Nonetheless, other bioclimatic and human factors can override the relationship between BA and fire weather. For example, BA in savannahs relates more strongly to patterns of fuel production or to the fragmentation of naturally fire-prone landscapes by agriculture. Similarly, BA trends in tropical forests relate more strongly to deforestation rates and forest degradation than to changing fire weather. Overall, BA has reduced by ~30% globally in the past two decades, due in large part to a ~40% decline in BA in African savannahs.According to climate models, the prevalence and extremity of fire weather has already emerged beyond its pre-industrial variability in the Mediterranean due to climate change, and emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels of warming. Moreover, several of the major wildfires experienced in recent years, including the Australian bushfires of 2019/2020, have occurred amidst fire weather conditions that were considerably more likely due to climate change.Current fire models incompletely reproduce the observed spatial patterns of BA based on their existing representations of the relationships between fire and its bioclimatic and human controls, and historical trends in BA also vary considerably across models. Advances in the observation of fire and understanding of its controlling factors are supporting the addition or optimisation of a range of processes in models.Overall, climate change is exerting a pervasive upwards pressure on fire globally by increasing the frequency and intensity of fire weather, and this upwards pressure will escalate with each increment of global warming. Improvements to ...

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Section: Indexing the Climatic Controls On Landscape Flammabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change

Jones

Abatzoglou

Veraverbeke

et al. 2022

Reviews of Geophysics

343

159

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The DC fuels also have a very slow drying rate, with a time-lag of 52 days, which is addressed by incorporating a seasonal day length factor in the drying phase. The FWI is the most widely used FDRS in the world and has been adapted by many countries including New Zealand, Mexico, Indonesia, and Malaysia, Fiji, parts of the United States, Argentina, Span and Portugal ( Field et al, 2014).…”

Section: Other Indices In Use Internationallymentioning

confidence: 99%

Sources of soil dryness measures and forecasts for fire danger rating

Kumar¹,

Dharssi²

2015

Bureau Research Report

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The Bureau of Meteorology advise that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law and the Bureau of Meteorology (including each of its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it.

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Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the UK

Jong¹,

Wooster²,

Kitchen³

et al. 2015

Preprint

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Abstract. Wildfires in the United Kingdom (UK) can pose a threat to people, infrastructure and the natural environment (e.g. to the carbon in peat soils), and their simultaneous occurrence within and across UK regions can periodically place considerable stress upon the resources of Fire and Rescue Services. "Fire danger" rating systems (FDRS) attempt to anticipate periods of heightened fire risk, primarily for early-warning purposes. The UK FDRS, termed the Met Office Fire Severity Index (MOFSI) is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) component of the Canadian Forest FWI System. MOFSI currently provides operational mapping of landscape fire danger across England and Wales using a simple thresholding of the final FWI component of the Canadian System. Here we explore a climatology of the full set of FWI System components across the entire UK (i.e. extending to Scotland and Northern Ireland), calculated from daily 2 km gridded numerical weather prediction data, supplemented by meteorological station observations. We used this to develop a percentile-based calibration of the FWI System optimised for UK conditions. We find the calibration to be well justified, since for example the values of the "raw" uncalibrated FWI components corresponding to a very "extreme" (99th percentile) fire danger situation can vary by up to an order of magnitude across UK regions. Therefore, simple thresholding of the uncalibrated component values (as is currently applied) may be prone to large errors of omission and commission with respect to identifying periods of significantly elevated fire danger compared to "routine" variability. We evaluate our calibrated approach to UK fire danger rating against records of wildfire occurrence, and find that the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and final FWI component of the FWI system generally have the greatest predictive skill for landscape fires in Great Britain, with performance varying seasonally and by land cover type. At the height of the most recent severe wildfire period in the UK (2 May 2011), 50 % of all wildfires occurred in areas where the FWI component exceeded the 99th percentile, and for each of the ten most serious wildfire events that occurred in the 2010–2012 period, at least one FWI component per event was found to surpass the 95th percentile. Overall, we demonstrate the significant advantages of using a calibrated, percentile-based approach for classifying UK fire danger, and believe our findings provide useful insights for any future redevelopment of the current operational UK FDRS.

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Development of a global fire weather database for 1980–2012

Cited by 3 publications

References 67 publications

Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change

Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change

Sources of soil dryness measures and forecasts for fire danger rating

Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the UK

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