Development of a Fuzzy Dynamic Model for the Formation of the Optimal Allocation of Financial Resources for the Maximum Development of Regional Human Capital

Abstract

Currently, human capital is one of the crucial factors in the sustainable development of the region; an increase in the level of human capital is an essential priority that allows to timely achieve the strategic goals of social and economic development. In this study, the issue of the optimal allocation of public financial resources that directly or indirectly affect the development of human capital was addressed. An economicmathematical model is proposed, the objective function of which is an integrated index that takes into account the degrees of achievement of strategic objectives for the development of human capital. The functional dependencies of human capital performance upon investments are represented by regression equations with lag 2. The model is a fuzzy mathematical programming problem in which the uncertainty and lack of information is modeled using a fuzzy set approach. The transition from a fuzzy optimization problem to a crisp one was performed by setting confidence levels for the objective function and constraints. For several regions of the Russian Federation, the examples of the formation of the optimal structure of public investment, which allows to obtain the maximum progress towards achieving targets in the field of human capital development, were considered over time by years for a given planning period.