Development of a fragility and vulnerability model for global seismic risk analyses

Martins, Luís; Silva, Vítor

doi:10.1007/s10518-020-00885-1

Cited by 151 publications

(175 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Similar values have been recently proposed for seismic risk applications (e.g. Martins and Silva, 2020).…”

Section: Seismic Risk 380supporting

confidence: 71%

Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment. An application case in Lima, Peru

Zapata¹,

Brinckmann²,

Harig³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. We propose the use of variable resolution boundaries based on Central Voronoi Tessellations (CVT) to spatially aggregate building exposure models for risk assessment to various natural hazards. Such a framework is especially beneficial when the spatial distribution of the considered hazards present intensity measures with contrasting footprints and spatial correlations such as in coastal environments. This proposal avoids the incorrect assumption that a single intensity value from hazards with low spatial correlation (e.g. tsunami) are considered as representative within large sized geocells for physical vulnerability assessment, without, at the same time, increasing the complexity of the overall model. We present decoupled earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk estimates for the residential building stock of Lima (Peru). We observe that earthquake loss models for far-field subduction sources are practically insensitive to the exposure resolution. Conversely, tsunami loss models and associated uncertainties depend on the spatial correlations of the hazard intensities as well as on the resolution of the exposure models. We observe that for the portfolio located in the coastal area exposed to both perils in Lima, the ground-shaking dominates the losses for lower magnitudes whilst the tsunami does for the larger ones. For the latter, two sets of existing empirical flow-depth fragility models are used, finding large differences in the losses. This study arises awareness about the uncertainties in the selection of fragility models and aggregations entities for exposure modelling and loss mapping.

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“…Similar values have been recently proposed for seismic risk applications (e.g. Martins and Silva, 2020).…”

Section: Seismic Risk 380supporting

confidence: 71%

Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment. An application case in Lima, Peru

Zapata¹,

Brinckmann²,

Harig³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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show abstract

“…For this study, seismic vulnerability functions are selected from GEM’s global database of vulnerability functions (Martins and Silva, in review) for every building typology present in the exposure model. These analytical vulnerability functions were derived as part of GEM’s global earthquake risk modeling effort, using non-linear time-history analyses on equivalent single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) models for over 500 building types around the world and 300 ground-motion records each for active shallow and subduction tectonic regions.…”

Section: Building Vulnerability Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In all, the vulnerability model for India includes 317 functions selected from this global vulnerability model. More details about the derivation of this set of analytical vulnerability functions can be found in Martins and Silva (in review), in which the authors also provide the structural and dynamic parameters used to define the capacity curves for the SDOF models.…”

Section: Building Vulnerability Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of India

Rao

Dutta²,

Kalita³

et al. 2020

Earthquake Spectra

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This study presents a comprehensive open probabilistic seismic risk model for India. The proposed model comprises a nationwide residential and non-residential building exposure model, a selection of analytical seismic vulnerability functions tailored for Indian building classes, and the open implementation of an existing probabilistic seismic hazard model for India. The vulnerability of the building exposure is combined with the seismic hazard using the stochastic (Monte Carlo) event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine to estimate probabilistic seismic risk metrics such as average annual economic losses and the exceedance probability curves at the national, state, district, and subdistrict levels. The risk model and the underlying datasets, along with the risk metrics calculated at different scales, are intended to be used as tools to quantitatively assess the earthquake risk across India and also compare with other countries to develop risk-informed building design guidelines, for more careful land-use planning, to optimize earthquake insurance pricing, and to enhance general earthquake risk awareness and preparedness.

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“…Exposure models at the neighborhood resolution were developed for each city, and are currently accessible to the general public. Structural fragility functions developed as part of GEM’s Global Seismic Risk Model (Martins and Silva, 2020) were used, and a casualty model was explored for the estimation of fatalities.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic risk assessment for the residential buildings of the major three cities in Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali

et al. 2020

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This study presents a seismic risk assessment and a set of earthquake scenarios for the residential building stock of the three largest metropolitan centers of Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín and Cali (with 8.0, 2.5, and 2.4 million inhabitants, respectively). A uniform methodology was followed for the development of the seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure models, thus allowing a direct comparison between the seismic risk of the different cities. Risk metrics such as exceedance probability curves and average annual losses were computed for each city. The earthquake scenarios were selected considering events whose direct economic impact is similar to the aggregated loss for a probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years. Results show a higher mean aggregate loss ratio for Cali and similar mean aggregate loss ratios for Bogotá and Medellín. All of the models used in this study are openly accessible, enabling risk modelers, engineers, and stakeholders to explore them for disaster risk management.

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Development of a fragility and vulnerability model for global seismic risk analyses

Cited by 151 publications

References 78 publications

Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment. An application case in Lima, Peru

Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment. An application case in Lima, Peru

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of India

Seismic risk assessment for the residential buildings of the major three cities in Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali

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