Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of India

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive open probabilistic seismic risk model for India. The proposed model comprises a nationwide residential and non-residential building exposure model, a selection of analytical seismic vulnerability functions tailored for Indian building classes, and the open implementation of an existing probabilistic seismic hazard model for India. The vulnerability of the building exposure is combined with the seismic hazard using the stochastic (Monte Carlo) event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine to estimate probabilistic seismic risk metrics such as average annual economic losses and the exceedance probability curves at the national, state, district, and subdistrict levels. The risk model and the underlying datasets, along with the risk metrics calculated at different scales, are intended to be used as tools to quantitatively assess the earthquake risk across India and also compare with other countries to develop risk-informed building design guidelines, for more careful land-use planning, to optimize earthquake insurance pricing, and to enhance general earthquake risk awareness and preparedness.

Parametric study on the collapse probability of modern reinforced concrete frames with infills

“…These observations are consistent with findings of other studies. We calculated the Peak Ground Acceleration for the 500-year return period to be 0.443 g. Similar values are reported by other studies, for example, 0.47 (Nath and Thingbaijam, 2012), 0.45 (Mahajan et al, 2010), and 0.35-0.55 g (Rao et al, 2020). However, the code-specified value of Peak Ground Acceleration for the 500-year return period for Dehradun is 0.18 g. It is important to note that this value includes the 1.5 load factor (which is actually a correction factor to convert median deterministic seismic hazard to MCE hazard) used with seismic loads in Indian code-specified load combinations.…”

“…However, the code-specified value of Peak Ground Acceleration for the 500-year return period for Dehradun is 0.18 g. It is important to note that this value includes the 1.5 load factor (which is actually a correction factor to convert median deterministic seismic hazard to MCE hazard) used with seismic loads in Indian code-specified load combinations. This large bias between the PSHA calculated value and code-specified values is already highlighted in previous works (Nath and Thingbaijam, 2012; Rao et al, 2020).…”

Device uncertainty propagation in low‐ductility RC frames retrofitted with BRBs for seismic risk mitigation

“…The damage experienced during historic and recent earthquakes worldwide has continued to highlight the substantial seismic vulnerability of existing reinforced concrete (RC) buildings designed before the introduction of modern seismic codes 1–3 . Thus, there is an urgent need for reliable retrofit strategies of such low‐ductility RC structures to effectively increase their seismic safety and resilience.…”

Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground Motions

“…Following that approach, global exposure models have been proposed [9][10][11]. Some of them have made use of census co-variants to infer building classes through so-called "mapping schemes" (e.g., [12]). However, since census data are available for dwellings and not buildings, further assumptions on the dwelling-to-building ratios are employed by that method (e.g., [13]).…”