Development and Validation of an Operational Search and Rescue Modeling System for the Yellow Sea and the East and South China Seas

Abstract

An operational search and rescue (SAR) modeling system was developed to forecast the tracks of victims or debris from marine accidents in the marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean. The system is directly linked to a real-time operational forecasting system that provides wind and surface current forecasts for the Yellow Sea and the East and South China Seas and is thus capable of immediately predicting the tracks and area to be searched for up to 72 h in the future. A stochastic trajectory model using a Monte Carlo ensemble technique is employed within the system to estimate the trajectories of drifting objects. It is able to consider leeway drift and to deal with uncertainties in the forcing fields obtained from the operational forecasting system. A circle assessment method was applied to evaluate the performance of the SAR model using comparisons in buoy and ship trajectories obtained from field drifter experiments. The method effectively analyzed the effects of the forcing fields and diagnosed the model’s performance. Results showed that accurate wind and current forcing fields play a significant role in improving the behavior of the SAR model. Operationally, the SAR modeling system is used to support the Korea Coast Guard during marine emergencies. Additionally, some sensitivity tests for model parameters and wave effect on the SAR model prediction are discussed.

Search and Rescue Applications: On the Need to Improve Ocean Observing Data Systems in Offshore or Remote Locations

“…For reference, Frost and Stone (2001) and Breivik et al (2013) provide a robust overview of search methods prior to the implementation of SAROPS in the early 2000s. SAROPS is computationally similar to SAR models used in the East and South China Seas (Cho et al, 2014) and the Australian SARMAP program (http://asascience.com/software/sarmap/). SAROPS subjects drift objects to an ambient current with the specific leeway coefficients input for each search object given the observed or modeled wind speed and direction.…”

Coastal Ocean Forecasting: science foundation and user benefits

“…An operational search and rescue (SAR) modelling system has been developed to forecast the tracks of victims or debris from marine accidents in the marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean (Cho et al 2014). The SAR system is directly linked to a real-time operational forecasting system that provides 72 h wind and surface current forecasts for the Yellow Sea and the East and South China Seas, capable of predicting the tracks and area to be searched.…”

Integrating Island Spatial Information and Integer Optimization for Locating Maritime Search and Rescue Bases: A Case Study in the South China Sea

“…Commonly, research on maritime SAR can be divided into the following two groups [11]: operational support [12][13][14][15] and strategic planning [16][17][18]. The former concerns methods where real-time SAR operations are supported by computational methods, e.g., to detect a missing object at sea in the minimum possible time [11]; the latter concerns strategic planning that aim to evaluate the overall performance of the SAR response system, e.g., to obtain maximal coverage of a sea area with the minimum required number of rescue units [18].…”