Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays

Taylor, Nick R.; Irish, Jennifer L.; Udoh, Ikpoto E.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, Scott C.

doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1646-5

Cited by 23 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The maximum ocean surge simulated is 6 m and the maximum ocean surge is approximately 4.5 m. Several studies have shown that storm surge is nonlinearly affected by sea levels such that amplification and deamplification of surge occurs as sea levels rise (e.g. Bilskie et al, 2014;Taylor et al, 2015). Here, it is acknowledged that this is a limitation of this study but is chosen for simplicity in comparison between storms and the resulting morphological changes.…”

Section: Figure 5 Water Levels (A) At the Offshore Boundary And (B) mentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation Pathway for a Barrier Island to Future Hurricanes

Smallegan¹,

Mazur²

2018

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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The numerical model XBeach is used to simulate hydrodynamics and morphological change of Bay Head, NJ, which is located on a developed barrier island. Bay Head is fronted with a seawall buried beneath its dunes, and the seawall has been shown to mitigate damage due to storm surge and waves during Hurricane Sandy (2012). The objective of this study is to re-evaluate the effectiveness of the seawall in mitigating damage from a synthetic storm and sea level rise, and refine an adaptation pathway previously created for Bay Head. Utilizing the wave and surge data generated from the North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study, synthetic Storm 391 is simulated using XBeach. Model results show the seawall is overtopped by storm surge and waves, causing overwash and reducing dune heights. As sea levels rise, the backbarrier region of the barrier island is severely eroded and the seawall acts as a barrier preventing elevated bay water levels from freely flowing across the island and into the ocean, exacerbating sediment transport on the backbarrier. To fully evaluate the capabilities and limitations of the seawall in mitigating storm damage, additional synthetic storms need to be simulated and the results re-evaluated. This will, in turn, lead to a comprehensive, more robust adaptation pathway for Bay Head.

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Section: Figure 5 Water Levels (A) At the Offshore Boundary And (B) mentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation Pathway for a Barrier Island to Future Hurricanes

Smallegan¹,

Mazur²

2018

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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“…For example, the predicted relative increase in surge hazard in the bays of Panama City, Florida is not linear with sea level rise. It either increases more slowly (at a rate as little as 85%), or more quickly (at a rate as much as 115%) than sea level rise, depending on location (Taylor et al, 2015). Levees, floodwalls, storm gates, and other infrastructure designed to reduce storm damage in specific geographic areas might impact storm surge and create damage in other nearby areas.…”

Section: Episodic Coastal and Riverine Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Long-Term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System: The Future of the U.S. Gulf Coast

Glickson¹,

Özkan-Haller²,

Carter³

et al. 2018

Geological Society of America Abstracts With Programs

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Division), and Eric White (The Water Institute of the Gulf). The committee would also like to thank Brad Murray of Duke University, who provided information to the committee via a webinar. This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

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“…Here, a is small such that slope k (shown here) represents one plus the fractional change in z SLR with respect to (ζ+SLR). From Taylor et al [76] Furthermore, many hazard and risk assessment studies approximate the impact of sea-level rise on future tropical cyclone flooding statistics via direct linear summation of the present-day probabilistic hazard assessment and projected sea-level rise (e.g., [57,72,75,77]), ignoring nonlinear interactions characteristic of complex coastlines and estuarine environments (e.g., [91,93]). This is problematic because this approach potentially creates a bias, on the order of 15 % in the future flood elevation (Fig.…”

Section: Nonstationary Considerations-decadal Variability and Long-tementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is problematic because this approach potentially creates a bias, on the order of 15 % in the future flood elevation (Fig. 4), either high or low depending on exact geographic location (e.g., [76]). …”

Section: Nonstationary Considerations-decadal Variability and Long-tementioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Risk

Resio

Irish

2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Tropical cyclone storm surge represents a significant threat to communities around the world. These surge characteristics vary spatially and temporally over a range of scales; therefore, conceptual frameworks for understanding and mitigating them must be cast within a context of risk that covers the complete range of hazards, their consequences, and methods for mitigation. A review of primary overlapping time scales and associated spatial scales for tropical cyclone surge hazards covers two scales of particular interest: (1) synopticscale predictions used for warnings and evacuation decisions and (2) long-term estimation of hazards and related risks needed for coastal planning and decision-making. Factors that can affect these estimates, such as episodic variations in tropical cyclone characteristics and longer-term climate change and sea-level rise are then examined in the context of their potential impacts on hazards and risks related to tropical cyclone surges.

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Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays

Cited by 23 publications

References 26 publications

Adaptation Pathway for a Barrier Island to Future Hurricanes

Adaptation Pathway for a Barrier Island to Future Hurricanes

Understanding the Long-Term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System: The Future of the U.S. Gulf Coast

Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Risk

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