Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Risk

Abstract

Tropical cyclone storm surge represents a significant threat to communities around the world. These surge characteristics vary spatially and temporally over a range of scales; therefore, conceptual frameworks for understanding and mitigating them must be cast within a context of risk that covers the complete range of hazards, their consequences, and methods for mitigation. A review of primary overlapping time scales and associated spatial scales for tropical cyclone surge hazards covers two scales of particular interest: (1) synopticscale predictions used for warnings and evacuation decisions and (2) long-term estimation of hazards and related risks needed for coastal planning and decision-making. Factors that can affect these estimates, such as episodic variations in tropical cyclone characteristics and longer-term climate change and sea-level rise are then examined in the context of their potential impacts on hazards and risks related to tropical cyclone surges.

The effects of natural structure on estimated tropical cyclone surge extremes

“…A good example of a location that restricts overwater approach angles can be found in the New York Bight. Figure 7 from Resio and Irish (2015) shows there is a strong relationship between heading and storm intensity in the historical sample of storms in this area. This type of correlation increases the likelihood of intense storms making landfall in the New York Bight, which then affects surge probabilities.…”

“…This complicates the need to quantify the epistemic uncertainty (the state-of-the-art modeling biases and random errors) related to interrelationships among all the forcing factors neglected in an idealized model that simulates synthetic storms, such as hurricane-land interaction which can be critical at landfall and complex multivariate correlation structures. A factor of particular importance is the neglect of baroclinic energy sources in the overall energy balance, as noted in the review by Resio and Irish (2015). Hurricane Sandy was transitioning into an extratropical system when it approached landfall, drawing about 50% of its energy from baroclinic sources.…”

Quantifying impacts of forecast uncertainties on predicted storm surges

“…Several papers have attempted to establish some level of understanding of the relative errors in differing models (Leuttich et al 2013;Kerr et al 2013;Resio and Irish 2015); however, as will be shown here, it is important to understand errors in storm surges relative to the errors in forecast hurricane characteristics. It is hoped that this paper will help provide the scientific and engineering community with at least a preliminary estimate of the implications of surge modeling accuracy for forecast decision-making.…”

“…8 Comparison of the primary surge at the Battery estimated from the SLOSH and ADCIRC models for the nine highest surge generating storms hindcast by Lin et al (2010) constrained models (Leuttich et al 2013;Kerr et al 2013). As pointed out in Resio and Irish (2015), the winds in SLOSH used in Fig. 8 may not represent a true estimate of the bias of this model, since other studies, using winds specifically intended for SLOSH applications, have indicated that the SLOSH model does not produce a bias of this magnitude in general.…”

Storm-wave trends in Mexican waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

“…Resio and Irish, 2015;Needham and Keim, 2014;Keim et al, 2007;Elsner et al, 1999;Simpson and Lawrence, 1971), wave conditions related to a storm event can be observed along distant coasts, well beyond the region of wind stress. Hence, a modification in storm characteristics will be associated with inherent changes in wave height and the storm surge reaching the coastline, which are the two main factors responsible for considerable economic losses in coastal and offshore areas (Mendelsohn et al, 2012;Neumann et al, 2014).…”