Development and testing scenarios for implementing  land use and land cover changes during the Holocene  in Earth system model experiments

Harrison, Sandy P.; Gaillard, Marie-José; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Linden, Marc Vander; Goldewijk, Kees Klein; Boles, Oliver; Braconnot, Pascale; Dawson, Andria; Fluet‐Chouinard, Etienne; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kastner, Thomas; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Robinson, Erick; Whitehouse, Nicki J.; Madella, Marco; Morrison, Kathleen D.

doi:10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020

Cited by 43 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 109 publications

(119 reference statements)

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“…This work is already underway. Harrison et al [ 8 ] outlines a protocol for evaluating the land use and land cover models created from the various archaeological data used in ALCC modeling. It suggests ways that the reconstruction created from archaeological data can be implemented into global land use and land cover scenarios, and how these should be evaluated using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mapping both human land use and land cover allows us to reconstruct anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) directly, using the rich empirical records of both paleoecology and archaeology. LandCover6k consists of three interrelated efforts: (1) land cover synthesis and mapping [e.g., 38 ], using pollen records and pollen-vegetation models such as REVEALS [ 39 ] and others [ 40 ]; (2) land use synthesis and mapping [ 2 and this paper]; and (3) modeler-paleoscientist coordination and co-design [ 8 , see [ 41 ] for a general discussion of the LandCover6k project]. Empirically independent records of land use and land cover are needed in order to better understand the complex relationships between them.…”

Section: Introduction: Earth Systems Models Land Cover and The Pastmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If we are to resolve the debate over the longer-term impact of humans on the earth system, the forms, timing, extent, severity, and significance of human action on land cover and other processes such as carbon cycling cannot be assumed; they must be empirically demonstrated. This paper outlines our approach to land use synthesis and mapping, designed specifically to be integrated with the work of the land use and earth system modeling efforts that are part of LandCover6k [ 8 ] and to integrate with pollen-based land cover syntheses [see [ 42 ] for an example set in Ireland].…”

Section: Introduction: Earth Systems Models Land Cover and The Pastmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mapping past human land use using archaeological data: A new classification for global land use synthesis and data harmonization

et al. 2021

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In the 12,000 years preceding the Industrial Revolution, human activities led to significant changes in land cover, plant and animal distributions, surface hydrology, and biochemical cycles. Earth system models suggest that this anthropogenic land cover change influenced regional and global climate. However, the representation of past land use in earth system models is currently oversimplified. As a result, there are large uncertainties in the current understanding of the past and current state of the earth system. In order to improve representation of the variety and scale of impacts that past land use had on the earth system, a global effort is underway to aggregate and synthesize archaeological and historical evidence of land use systems. Here we present a simple, hierarchical classification of land use systems designed to be used with archaeological and historical data at a global scale and a schema of codes that identify land use practices common to a range of systems, both implemented in a geospatial database. The classification scheme and database resulted from an extensive process of consultation with researchers worldwide. Our scheme is designed to deliver consistent, empirically robust data for the improvement of land use models, while simultaneously allowing for a comparative, detailed mapping of land use relevant to the needs of historical scholars. To illustrate the benefits of the classification scheme and methods for mapping historical land use, we apply it to Mesopotamia and Arabia at 6 kya (c. 4000 BCE). The scheme will be used to describe land use by the Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k working group, an international project comprised of archaeologists, historians, geographers, paleoecologists, and modelers. Beyond this, the scheme has a wide utility for creating a common language between research and policy communities, linking archaeologists with climate modelers, biodiversity conservation workers and initiatives.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introduction: Earth Systems Models Land Cover and The Pastmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introduction: Earth Systems Models Land Cover and The Pastmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mapping past human land use using archaeological data: A new classification for global land use synthesis and data harmonization

et al. 2021

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“…We have utilized BIOME 6000 data which has been collected for the past 50 years to represent the PI period (1850 CE). This may be questioned due to changes in climate but also the level of anthropogenic disturbance, such as land use and land cover changes (Dawson et al., 2018; Harrison et al., 2020). These anthropogenic effects since PI will be evaluated using PI biome reconstructions (such as LandCover 6k, http://pastglobalchanges.org/science/wg/landcover6k/) in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstructing Past Global Vegetation With Random Forest Machine Learning, Sacrificing the Dynamic Response for Robust Results

Lindgren

Zhang

et al. 2021

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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Vegetation is an important component in the Earth system, providing a direct link between the biosphere and atmosphere. As such, a representative vegetation pattern is needed to accurately simulate climate. We attempt to model global vegetation (biomes) with a data‐driven approach, to test if this allows us to create robust global and regional vegetation patterns. This not only provides quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation cover as a climate forcing, but also improves our understanding of past land cover‐climate interactions which have important implications for the future. By using a Random Forest (RF) machine learning tool, we train the vegetation reconstruction with available biomized pollen data of present and past conditions to produce broad‐scale vegetation patterns for the preindustrial (PI), the mid‐Holocene (MH, ∼6,000 years ago), and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21,000 years ago). We test the method's robustness by introducing a systematic temperature bias based on existing climate model spread and compare the result with that of LPJ‐GUESS, an individual‐based dynamic global vegetation model. The results show that the RF approach is able to produce robust patterns for periods and regions well constrained by evidence (the PI and the MH), but fails when evidence is scarce (the LGM). The apparent robustness of this method is achieved at the cost of sacrificing the ability to model dynamic vegetation response to a changing climate.

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“…introduction of land use is also an important factor to better characterize the Holocene impact of human activity in addition to the rapid increase in greenhouse gases. This additional human effect is modifying regional climate characteristics (Harrison et al 2020). Ensembles of such long simulations will soon be available to the community, providing new opportunities to understand the evolution of both the water cycle and ecosystems.…”

Section: Figure 1: (A)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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2020

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News 6th Open Science Meeting and 4th Young Scientists Meeting pAGES is proud to announce the next meetings will be held in Agadir, Morocco, from 16-22 May 2021. The winning bid was submitted by a consortium from Université ibn Zohr, Sultan Moulay Slimane University and Mohamed Vi polytechnic University. They are now being assisted by Universiapolis for the events' organization. Held once every four years, the OSM and YSM are the premier events in pAGES' calendar and provide an invaluable opportunity to bring the international past global change community together to share, discuss, learn, and plan for the future. Abstract submission and registration opens 1 July 2020. We look forward to seeing you there! All details: pages-osm.org Rescheduling of workshops/meetings The COViD-19 pandemic has resulted in several pAGES workshops and supported meetings being cancelled or postponed-groups affected include ACME, C-pEAT, CVAS, LandCover6k, pEOpLE 3000 and potentially more. please check pAGES calendar for updated news and information regarding rescheduling: pastglobalchanges.org/calendar/upcoming Working group news Two working groups have started their second phases: Climate Variability Across Scales (CVAS; pastglobalchanges.org/cvas) Speleothem isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SiSAL; pastglobalchanges.org/sisal) Three groups recently sunsetted: paleoclimate reanalyses, Data Assimilation and proxy System modeling (DApS) Ocean Circulation and Carbon Cycling (OC3) Global paleofire Working Group 2 (GpWG2) Find out more about them here: pastglobalchanges.org/science/wg/former Did you know pAGES working groups have designated mailing lists? Stay up to date and be involved in their activities. Find all the active mailing lists here: pastglobalchanges.org/science/wg/intro PAGES Early-Career Network (ECN) Abstract submission closes 8 May and registration opens 2 June for the joint pAGES-iNQUA ECr Workshop "past Socio-Environmental Systems" (pASES) from 7-13 November 2020 in La Serena, Chile: pastglobalchanges.org/calendar/2020/127-pages/1972 All details of ECN activities can be found at: pastglobalchanges.org/ecn Deadline for new working groups and workshop financial support The next deadline to propose a new pAGES working group or to apply for financial support for a meeting, workshop, or conference is 16 September 2020: pastglobalchanges.org/my-pages/introduction Thanks to financial support from the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the Swiss Academy of Sciences (SCNAT), pAGES can assist in the running of paleoscience meetings. Applications should be received at least six months in advance of the planned event. All details: pastglobalchanges.org/my-pages/meeting-support PAGES IPO staff update pAGES' international project Office recently welcomed Monika Hofer, who replaced Alexandra Gerber as Finance and Office Manager. Her contact details can be found here: pastglobalchanges.org/about/structure/international-project-office Help us keep PAGES People Database up to date Have you changed institutions or are you about to move...

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Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments

Cited by 43 publications

References 109 publications

Mapping past human land use using archaeological data: A new classification for global land use synthesis and data harmonization

Mapping past human land use using archaeological data: A new classification for global land use synthesis and data harmonization

Reconstructing Past Global Vegetation With Random Forest Machine Learning, Sacrificing the Dynamic Response for Robust Results

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