Development and greenhouse gas emissions deviate from the ‘modernization’ theory and ‘convergence’ hypothesis

Abstract

Projections of future climate change partly depend on the assumptions made for future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). These emissions are typically represented through an emissions scenario that posits a particular trajectory of development for the global society over the time of the projection. Since GHG emissions have a substantial impact on climate change, a relevant issue is what theories provide a good framework for addressing the drivers of GHG. We address 2 key research questions in this context: (1) Are carbon emissions attributable to structural change? If so, is it necessary to focus on the trajectories of carbon intensity or also on total emissions? (2) Does the development path of developing countries follow that of industrialized nations (convergence hypothesis) or is it suppressed in some areas and augmented in others due to world hierarchy and heterogeneity? Two development theories that have been applied to understand the drivers of GHG emissions are the modernization theory (MT) and the world economy theory (WET). In this paper, we use a statistical cluster analysis of economic data at the country level to test these theories and explore the convergence hypothesis with respect to GDP and GHG emissions. Results show no evidence of convergence among countries' welfare and emissions in the near term as a consequence of the MT. These results suggest that caution should be exercised in using the MT as basis for developing future emissions scenarios and that more attention should be paid to the WET.

Cities as nuclei of sustainability?

“…Especially in the global context, the question of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from cities is of interest [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29] -to what extent is urbanization driving or mitigating climate change?…”

Decoupling Natural Resource Use and Environmental Impacts from Economic Growth

“…The Scenarios are optimistic about the future in two respects. First, similar modes of analysis (Romero-Lankao et al, 2008) have shown that at present convergence trends can be observed for some countries, but not for others. The implications of this are that the vision of 'convergence by 2050' (which expresses a normative commitment to socio-economic justice) is unrealistic and the 'fortress world' scenario as outlined in the GEO scenarios (UNEP, 2004) might be more likely.…”

Exploring Citizens’ Actions in Mitigating Climate Change and Moving toward Urban Circular Economy. A Multilevel Approach

“…Since greenhouse gas emissions significantly influence climate change, modernization theory and world economy theory [147] have been investigated, empirical results confirming both theories. The IPCC WGII [148] proved that the main factors of influence in the climate change adaption are the access to economic and natural resources as well as institutions and governance.…”