Development and application of a North American Great Lakes hydrometeorological database — Part I: Precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and air temperature

Hunter, Timothy; Clites, Anne H.; Campbell, K. B.; Gronewold, Andrew D.

doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2014.12.006

Cited by 60 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Evaluation of RCMs skill in simulating the hydrological regime over the Great Lakes is carried out over a common period of the NARCCAP and AMNO CRCM4 present climate simulations and is mainly based on the NOAA-GLERL monthly hydrometeorological database (Hunter et al 2015), referred to as the GLM-HMD. The analysis involves validation of simulated annual means and mean seasonal cycles of the following variables: over-lake and over-land screen air temperatures, over-lake and over-land precipitation, lake evaporation and evapotranspiration from the adjacent land, runoff from the land part of the basin (expressed as a depth over the lake), and resulting NBS to a lake.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The uncertainty estimates provided by Neff and Nicholas (2005) are used to represent the errors associated with observations. Although GLM-HMD is compiled taking into account a huge amount of observations, some variables are still primarily based on calculations (Hunter et al 2015). Thus, long-term monthly estimates of Great Lakes evaporation are derived using Lake Evaporation Model (LEM; Croley 1989), whose input is a set of meteorological data based on near-shore over-land observations adjusted for over-water/over-ice conditions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

et al. 2015

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Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydrometeorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041-2070) and present (1971-1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

et al. 2015

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“…This cycle is driven largely by regional snowmelt in the spring and enhanced evaporation in the late fall and winter months (Lenters et al, ). Given the large surface area of the lakes, overlake precipitation and evaporation play an important role in the annual water balance (Hunter et al, ). For Lake Ontario, water level variations are also strongly influenced by the outflows from the upper Great Lakes, which are large compared to local water supply components.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydroclimatological Drivers of Extreme Floods on Lake Ontario

Carter

2018

Water Resources Research

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This study examines the hydrologic and climatic conditions that precede major flood events on Lake Ontario, with the purpose of understanding the potential for seasonal forecasts to inform lake level management. Seven late spring/early summer flood events are identified since 1949, including the record‐breaking flood of 2017. The surface climate, atmospheric circulation, and antecedent lake levels for the preceding winter and spring seasons are examined. Results suggest that flood events are caused by different combinations of high, initial wintertime water levels across all of the Great Lakes, anomalously wet winters across the entire Great Lakes basin, and wet spring conditions, particularly in the eastern part of the basin. Wet winters that precede flood events are often associated with La Niña conditions, while wet springs are often associated with a westward shift of the North Atlantic Subtropical High. As the critical drawdown period for Lake Ontario occurs in the fall, before the onset of anomalous winter or spring/summer inputs, a generalized additive model was used to predict April–August maximum monthly average Lake Ontario water levels using November levels for all Great Lakes, a nonlinear response to the wintertime Niño 3.4 index, and scenarios of April–May overbasin precipitation. The Niño 3.4 index significantly improves lake level predictions, suggesting that an El Niño‐Southern Oscillation signal may be useful for lake level management. Future work needed to verify the use of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation for Lake Ontario flood forecasting and to link the North Atlantic Subtropical High to predictions of springtime Great Lakes climate is discussed.

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“…The results are in agreement with those of Hunter et al . (), who observed an over‐lake decrease in precipitation for the past 20 years for Lake Superior. They also observed an abrupt increase in over‐lake evaporation at the beginning of the late 1990s for the Laurentian Great Lakes and an increase in evaporation, for a longer period, over Lake Superior.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Climatological trends of snowfall over the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

Baijnath-Rodino

Duguay

LeDrew

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The leewards shores of the Laurentian Great Lakes are highly susceptible to lake‐induced snowfall. During the late autumn and winter season, cold air advection over relatively warm lakes can induce instability in the lower planetary boundary layer (PBL), facilitating the exchange of moisture and energy fluxes and fuelling the development of snowfall. Snowfall in this region can have disastrous impacts on local communities such as the November 2014 Buffalo storm that caused 13 fatalities. This paper discusses historical snowfall trends along the Canadian leewards shores of Lakes Superior and Huron‐Georgian Bay and explores several lake‐induced predictor variables that may influence the snowfall trends. Spatio‐temporal snowfall and total precipitation trends were computed for the 1980–2015 period over the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) using the Daymet (version 3) gridded estimated data set. Results show a significant decrease in snowfall, at a rate of 40 cm/36 years, and a significant decrease in total precipitation of 20 mm/36 years, along the Ontario snowbelts of Lake Superior and partially along that of Lake Huron‐Georgian Bay at the 95% confidence level during the cold season. Attributions to these negative spatio‐temporal trends are explored using data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) data sets. Predictor variables show significant warming in lake surface temperature (LST) at a rate of over 6 K/36 years for Lake Superior, significant decrease in ice cover fraction for both lakes, and an increase in the vertical temperature gradient (VTG) between the LST and the 850 mb level. While the behavioural trends of these variables are believed to enhance snowfall through increased evaporation, there are other complex processes involved, such as inefficient moisture recycling and increased moisture storage in warmer air masses that may inhibit the development of snowfall along the immediate leewards shores of Lake Superior.

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Development and application of a North American Great Lakes hydrometeorological database — Part I: Precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and air temperature

Cited by 60 publications

References 62 publications

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Hydroclimatological Drivers of Extreme Floods on Lake Ontario

Climatological trends of snowfall over the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

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