Developing a Translational Discourse to Communicate Uncertainty in Flood Risk between Science and the Practitioner

Faulkner, Hazel P.; Parker, Denis M.; Green, Colin; Beven, Keith

doi:10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[692:datdtc]2.0.co;2

Cited by 116 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…In addition, as Faulkner et al (2007) propose, there is a need for translation to overcome linguistic uncertainty. During the interviews it became apparent that experts dispose of differentiated knowledge about uncertainties, however, the terms used differed from scientific terms.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As uncertainty is part of information and not a lack of knowledge (Blöschl and Montanari, 2010) it has to be communicated and transferred as well. Therefore, integration of uncertainty information is a key criteria to choose between alternatives during a decision process (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1993) and supports evaluation of reliability of the findings (Kinzig et al, 2003). Furthermore, it enhances transparency within the decision process (Reichert et al, 2007) and puts value on the findings by communicating their limits (Pappenberger and Beven, 2006).…”

Section: Risk Uncertainty and The Need For Knowledge Transfermentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integration of uncertainties in water and flood risk management

Höllermann

Evers

2015

Proc. IAHS

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Abstract. Water management is challenged by hydrological and socio-economic change and hence often forced to make costly and enduring decisions under uncertainty. Thus, thinking beyond current acknowledged and known limits is important to consider these changes and the dynamic of socio-hydrological interactions. For example, reservoir management aiming at flood reduction and mitigation has to cope with many different aspects of uncertainty. The question is to what extent can, do and should these uncertainties have implications on planning and decision-making?If practice recognises uncertainties they frequently use risk based decision approaches to acknowledge and handle them by e.g. relating them to other decision relevant factors, while science is mostly preoccupied in reducing these uncertainties. Both views are of relevance and a risk focused approach is needed to bridge the different perspectives covering all significant aspects of uncertainty. Based on a review of various characteristics and perceptions of uncertainty, this paper proposes a new analytical framework where the various aspects of uncertainty are condensed and a risk perspective is added. It thus goes beyond a pure typology and provides an overview of neuralgic points and their location and appearance during the decision-making process. Moreover this paper supports a structured and evaluated knowledge assessment and knowledge transfer for informed decision-making and points out potential fields of action and uncertainty reduction. Reservoir management targeting at flood prevention is used as an illustration to present the analytical framework, which is also amended by the needs and demands of practitioners, using first results of expert interviews.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Risk Uncertainty and The Need For Knowledge Transfermentioning

confidence: 99%

Integration of uncertainties in water and flood risk management

Höllermann

Evers

2015

Proc. IAHS

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“…While a lot of effort is made to develop uncertainty communication protocols for policy makers and society as a whole (Van der Sluijs et al 2003;Faulkner et al 2007;Morgan et al 2009;Mastrandrea et al 2010;Beven et al 2011), less attention is paid to who is participating in the assessment and how they arrive at their conclusion. We need research in which teams with people from different backgrounds work together on policy-relevant questions.…”

Section: Drawing On Science and Technology Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

et al. 2014

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The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities worked together on 'end-to-end' uncertainty assessments of climate change and its impacts. Here, we use an experiment in peer review amongst project members to assess variation in the assessment of uncertainties between EQUIP researchers. We find overall agreement on key sources of uncertainty but a large variation in the assessment of the methods used for uncertainty assessment. Results show that communication aimed at specialists makes the methods used harder to assess. There is also evidence of individual bias, which is partially attributable to disciplinary backgrounds. However, varying views on the methods used to quantify uncertainty did not preclude consensus on the consequential results produced using those methods. Based on our analysis, we make recommendations for developing and presenting statements on climate and its impacts. These include the use of a common uncertainty reporting format in order to make assumptions clear; presentation of results in terms of processes and trade-offs rather than only numerical ranges; and reporting multiple assessments of uncertainty in order to elucidate a more complete picture of impacts and their uncertainties. This in turn implies research should be done by teams of people with a range of backgrounds and time for interaction and discussion, with fewer but more comprehensive outputs in which the range of opinions is recorded.

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“…However, these research findings often do not significantly influence the practitioner flood risk community. This is due to the difference in the perception of flood risks between model developers and flood risk practitioners [11][12][13][14]. The researchers generally frame flood risk issues using scientific knowledge and expertise.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Inundation Modelling of Flash Floods in Steep River Basins and Catchments

Kvočka¹,

Ahmadian²,

Falconer³

2017

Water

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Abstract:The potential flood inundation extent can be estimated with flood inundation models, which can differ in the level of physical and numerical modelling complexity included in the solution procedure. In recent years, several studies have highlighted the benefits of shock-capturing flood inundation models, particularly when modelling a high Froude number or supercritical flows, or in areas prone to the occurrence of rapidly varying flood events, such as flash floods. Nonetheless, decision makers are often reluctant to implement more complex modelling tools into practical flood inundation modelling studies, unless evidence is provided to establish when such refined modelling tools should be used. The main objective of this study was to determine a general threshold value of the bottom slope that could be used by decision makers as an orientation guide to ascertain when to use a specific type of flood inundation model. The results obtained suggest that in torrential river basins or catchments (i.e., river basins and catchments with a bed slope generally greater than 1%), the flood inundation modelling should be conducted by using a flood inundation model that include shock-capturing algorithms in the model solution procedure.

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Developing a Translational Discourse to Communicate Uncertainty in Flood Risk between Science and the Practitioner

Cited by 116 publications

References 6 publications

Integration of uncertainties in water and flood risk management

Integration of uncertainties in water and flood risk management

Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

Flood Inundation Modelling of Flash Floods in Steep River Basins and Catchments

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