Developing a generic biosecurity risk assessment model for imports

Abstract

Developing decision support models to evaluate biosecurity risks objectively helps decision makers manage the associated risks with importation of goods We report on the development of a prototype generic risk assessment model to determine the probability and consequences of a plant pest establishment and spread event for an infection point given the biosecurity risk organism arrives via various pathways The model has a number of submodels including entry pathway which models the ratio of infested units coming from any pathway supplying the infection point; establishment and spread which models the chance of an establishment and spread event occuring at an infection point; and consequences which models the consequences of any establishment or spread event occurring at the site Future research is planned to develop a generic input interface to generate a support tool to allow a user to investigate the impacts of alternative whatif scenarios and to test the model on realworld plant pest inputs

An Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) For Evaluating the Risk of Import Pathways for the Establishment of Invasive Species

“…The Integrated Biosecurity Risk Analysis Model (IBRAM) implements a framework that provides estimates regarding the entry, establishment, and spread of a pest organism into an area along multiple pathways and to evaluate interventions to manage these pathways. The model builds upon previously developed models for biosecurity, including the Spatial Pest Entry Analysis Runner (SPEAR) (Mascaro & Thiruvady, 2017) and the Generic Risk Assessment Model (GRAM) (Jamieson et al., 2016). SPEAR was developed to guide the design of surveillance programs for high‐impact organisms.…”

“…IBRAM combines these two models into a unified framework, and extends upon them to provide a single tool to evaluate information for operational decisions on pathway risk management or surveillance system designs. The model was developed through a collaborative process where modelers, domain experts, and stakeholders drew upon their collective knowledge and opinion of pest entry pathways, and invasion dynamics (Jamieson et al., 2016; Meurisse, Rassati, Hurley, Brockerhoff, & Haack, 2019). The economy of New Zealand relies upon a profitable primary industry sector, which is assisted by the absence of many pests and diseases and, therefore, biosecurity is a major priority.…”

“…In recent decades, BN modeling has received increasing attention as a suitable tool to support environmental management decisions (Uusitalo, 2007), including for biosecurity (Jamieson et al., 2013; Mengersen et al., 2012; Wintle & Nicholson, 2014). BNs have been used in a broad range of fields including environmental monitoring (Avila, Horn, Moriarty, Hodson, & Moltchanova, 2018), assessing nontarget impacts of biological control agents (Meurisse, Marcot, Woodberry, Barratt, & Todd, 2021, in press), pest and disease management (Firestone et al., 2014; Hood, Barry, & Martin, 2009; Marcot, Hoff, Martin, Jewell, & Givens, 2019; Pawson, Marcot, & Woodberry, 2017), and biosecurity risk management (Holt et al., 2018; Jamieson, Woodberry, Mcdonald, & Ormsby, 2016; Johnson, Mengersen, Ormsby, & Whittle, 2015; Keith & Spring, 2015; Stanaway, 2015; van Klinken, Murray, & Smith, 2015). BN modeling is particularly appropriate for pest risk assessment in a quantitative framework, where a primary output can be reported as the uncertainty distribution of the estimated number of entries of organisms, at a defined spatial resolution.…”

Risk Analysis Frameworks Used in Biological Control and Introduction of a Novel Bayesian Network Tool

“…Over the past 20 years, BNs have been widely used in ecological modeling (see section 5.2.3 in Korb & Nicholson, 2011). In biosecurity modeling, BNs have been developed for pest detection and eradication (Burgman et al., 2010; Dambacher, Shenton, Hayes, Hart, & Barry, 2008; Horton, Evans, James, & Campbell, 2009; Murphy, Jansen, Murray, & De Barro, 2010; Peterson, Rieman, Dunham, Fausch, & Young, 2008) and for import risk assessment (Hood, Barry, & Martin, 2009; Jamieson, Woodberry, McDonald, & Ormsby, 2016; Mengersen et al., 2012). There have been several assessments of BNs as biosecurity tools (e.g., Baker & Stuckey, 2009; Hood et al., 2009; Hosack, Hayes, & Dambacher, 2008; Walshe & Burgman, 2010; Wintle & Nicholson, 2014).…”

“…Another approach gaining favor in evaluating risk and management solutions for invasive species, and introduction of BCAs, is the use of BN models (Holt et al, 2018;Jamieson et al, 2013Jamieson et al, , 2016Mengersen et al, 2012;Wright et al, 2005). BNs can link physiological and ecological input variables using conditional probabilities to calculate posterior probabilities of specified outcome states, such as degree of potential spread of and injury by invasive species (Marcot, Hoff, Martin, Jewell, & Givens, 2019;Wyman-Grothem, Popoff, Hoff, & Herbst, 2018).…”